Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly up: CH, -$.0050; SF, +$.02; WH, +$0.0125; KWH, +$.0050.  Del’y: SBM, 148; SBO, 860; C, 129; ETOH, 28; HRW, 1

·       What caught my eye:  Mexican corn demand . . . drought-like conditions in key producing state of Sinaloa are expected to contribute to a 2.3 MMT/14% increase in the country’s corn imports

·       China says trade talks remain on track. ASIA: Higher—Nikkei, +0.71%; Shanghai, +0.74%; Hang Seng, +0.59%; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.27%; FTSE, -0.11%; CAC, +0.82%.  WALL STREET—Futures, up—DOW, +124; S&P, +13.25; NAS, +42.50.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$0.13 @ $58.47; Gold: -$0.20 @ $1,480; $ Index, -.144 @ 97.504

·       T-storm Weather®: thunderstorms affect varying areas of Argentina, Brazil, & Paraguay at varying times the next two weeks, but only near- & below-normal totals are likely as the forecast becomes more challenging.  Most notably, after a week of drying in Argentina, some rain follows Dec. 11-15 with highest overall threat along to just north of key areas.  In Brazil, an axis of repeated thunderstorms forms next week, but may locate between key production areas of the central & south, while Bahia turns drier

• CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.78; CK, dn $.0075 @ $3.8375.  Fund selling was pegged at 5 K Wednesday
• SF, up $.02 @ $8.80; SH, up $.0175 @ $8.9425.  Funds: Bot 4 SB, 2 SBM &  3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.10, +1 LY, $0.98
• WH, up $.0125 @ $5.2875; WK, up $.01 @ $5.3250.  The funds bought 3 K yesterday                  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 20-35 mbu for 19/20 corn

• T-storm Weather®: mixed/challenging harvest weather continues in MI, ND & WI.  Melting this week in ND is followed by light snow & several days of intense cold; rain & snow break a favorably-dry period in WI & MI from Mon.-Tue. on

·       Consultant: weather in Brazil for full-season corn has generally been average; however, full-season corn production in Brazil will account for less than 30% of total output with safrinha (double crop) corn making up the remainder

• Ethanol grind: Total of 1,060,000 barrels/day for week end Nov. 29—dn 1 thou v. prior week & dn 0.8% v. last year   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export​ Sales report.  Trade expects 26-48 for 19/20 soybeans; 100-300 for 19/20 soymeal; and 5-25 for 19/20 soyoil

• T-storm Weather®: most likely forecast for soybeans in central & northern Brazil is 2.25”-4.50” of rain to fall the next two weeks, versus normal rainfall of 3.50”-4.50”, though it should be noted that GEFS output shows more than 6.00”

·       Consultant: weather for soybeans in Brazil continues to improve, but it is still uneven with pockets of dryness in parts of south-central region & in the northeast.  Late planted beans can still have acceptable yields with favorable weather

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-26 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: drying likely continues over the next two weeks for HRW wheat in the U.S. Plains

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLG20, +$0.13 @ $58.47; EBG, +$0.42 @ $63.42; EBG-QCLG, +.270; RBG, +.0117; NGG, +.021; HOG, +.0042

·       Chicago ethanol shed $.0280 @ $1.46 Wednesday; basis values versus Chicago were mixed:  NYC, +$.0130 @ $.10; Gulf, +$.003 @ $.0950; Dallas, -$.0220 @ +$.0650; Tampa, -$.0320 @ +$.17; LA, +$.003 @ +$.2350

·       Ethanol RINs values were steady/firm: 2018’s, +.125 @ 6 ¼ -7; 2019’s, +.1250 @ 12 ¼ -13; 2020’s, unch @ 19 ¾ -21                                                          &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                       

·       The January RBOB/December ethanol spread surged out $.1393 to $.2332      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            ​;                   ​        

• Choice boxed beef fell $3.20 on Wednesday to $226.95 and is $5.29 lower versus a week ago 
• Week-to-week declines in choice boxed beef values have occurred for 12 consecutive trading days

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 28-cents on Wed. to $79.73 but is up 53-cents versus last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.82 on Wed. to $58.20.  December futures fell $0.625 but are $3.675 above the index    

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®