HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly lower: CZ, -$.0175; SF, +$.0125; WZ, -$.0325; KWZ, -$.0150.  Del’y:  RR, 0; SB, 4.  Dalian: C, +1 ¾; SB, - 12 ¼   

·       What caught my eye: Yesterday’s ethanol report had production down 5.2% year to year.  Implied corn/milo grind to-date is running about 62 mbu BEHIND last year with the USDA forecasting a 163 mbu INCREASE in the annual total vs 19-20

·       Despite spiking Covid cases and worries over the to be determined stimulus package, futures are higher

• Asia:  Weaker:  Nikkei, -0.53%; Shanghai, -0.86%; Hang Seng, -0.05%
• EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.26%; FTSE, -0.24%; CAC, +0.45%
• WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, +230; S&P, +27.5; NAS, +86
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, -$0.53 @ $40.59; Gold: +$5.20 @ $1,879; Mar $ Index, -0.105 @ 92.810
• T-storm Weather®: Dry to drought conditions persist over the next two weeks in much of Argentina and the southern half to two-thirds of Brazil’s growing belt because; (1) rains were limited in recent weeks; (2) only some thunderstorms are forthcoming over the next five days when a cool front passes; (3) 7 to 10 days of drying follow as a large surface-level forms; and (4) the chance for substantial rain in 10 to 14 days is only low
• CZ, dn $.0175 @ $4.0650; CH, dn $.0175 @ $4.1650. Funds sell 15 K, macro overtones are not friendly              
• SF, up $.0125 @ $11.46; SH, up $.0125 @ $11.46.  Funds sell 7 SB; 2 BO, 6 SM. Board crush: $1.24 (Z/X), -$.05; LY, $0.90
• WZ, dn $.0325 @ $5.85; WH, dn $.0350 @ $5.9375.  More fund selling as they liquidated an estimated 6 K yesterday     

   CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 28 – 63 mbu for 20/21 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: In Argentina, scattered rain affects southwestern areas Fri.-Sat., & then northwestern areas Sat.-Sun., producing 0.50”-1.50” on ~30% of early-corn.  A dry & seasonable to cool period follows for at least 7-10 days

·       Ethanol grind: 977,000 barrels/day for week ending Nov. 6—up 16 thou (1.7%) v. last week but 5.1% lower v. 2019

·       The USDA earlier this week lowered its estimate of Ukraine corn production from 36.5 MMT to 28.5 MMT.  Ukraine corn prices are up $10/ton over the past few days to $235-$272/ton, according to APK-Inform

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 29- 66 mbu for 20/21 soybeans; soymeal, 100 – 400 for 20/21; and soyoil, 30 - 90 for 20/21  

·       T-storm Weather®: Uptick in rain begins Fri.-Sat. in Brazil, then a much-better uptick Mon.-Wed..; 3-5 days of drying begin Nov. 19, before rain returns.  Most likely for 2.00”-4.00” to affect wide area next 2 wks. v. ~3.00”-~5.00” normal

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 7 - 26 mbu for 20/21 wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: Little to no rain is forecast for drought-stricken U.S. HRW wheat until possibly some Nov. 22-24

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ20, -$0.53 @ $40.59; EBF, -$0.35 @ $43.19; EBF-CLF, +0.19; RBZ, -.0183; NGZ, +.029; HOZ, -.0128

·       Chicago ethanol was sharply lower, off $.0625 yesterday at $1.46875. Basis, mostly firm: NYC, +$.0175 @ +$.01125; Gulf, -$.0075 @ +$.02625; Dallas, +$.0025 @ +$.05125; Tampa, +$.0025 @ +$.14625; LA, +$.0375 @ +$.09125

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -1.25 @ 66-67; 2020’s, -2.50 @ 64 ½ -67; 2021, -2.50 @ 65 ½ - 68                                                &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​; 

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.034 narrower this morning at -$.2235 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    ​                   ​

• Choice boxed beef was $3.66 higher on Thursday, and is up $13.95 versus the previous week 
• Cash cattle trade developed late Thursday afternoon for $110 in the South ($3.00 higher than a week ago)
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.18 on Thu. to $82.05, and is $3.08 lower compared to a week ago
• Lean Hog Index fell $0.05 on Thu. to $71.32.  December futures firmed $1.000 but remain $5.520 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

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