HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly lower: CZ, -$.0125; SX, +$.0175; WZ, -$.0350; KWZ, -$.0450.  FWIW:  Jan Dalian corn futures, up $.06, new high 

·       What caught my eye: Surprisingly low corn shipments out of Brazil the first 8 days of October at 135 K MT per day.  That’s about 100 K/40% LESS than LY and on a pace to fall 2.3 MMT SHORT of the October 2019 total

·       U.S. futures are slightly positive as hopes fade Congress will reach a pre-election stimulus deal

• Asia:  Mostly firmer-- Nikkei, +0.11%; Shanghai, -0.56%holiday; Hang Seng, +0.07%
• EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.10%; FTSE, -0.06%; CAC, -0.17%
• WALL STREET: Firmer?-–DOW futures, +42; S&P, +0.50; NAS, +15.25
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$0.33 @ $39.87; Gold: +$6.00 @ $1,900; Mar $ Index, -0.051 @ 93.450
• T-storm Weather®: Intense freezes are on the way for the Northern U.S. Plains were winter wheat is 50-60% emerged. Minimums will be in the teens near the Dakotas and Montana for several days. Some rain and snow are likely in the far northern areas with rain mostly probable about one week out.  Some storms will develop in southern Brazil and Paraguay through the weekend but will be very limited in Central Brazil as well as key growing areas of Argentina.
• CZ, dn $.0125 @ $3.90; CH, dn $.0125 @ $3.98.  Funds buy 3 K, mostly in response to S Am weather concerns         
• SX, up $.0175 @ $10.4575; SF, up $.0150 @ $10.4850. Funds: bot 5 SB; bot 4 SBO, 2 SBM. Board crush: $1.09 (Z/X), -.01; LY, $0.73
• WZ, dn $.0350 @ $5.9050; WH, dn $.0375 @ $5.9350.  The funds were estimated to be even for the 2^nd day in a row                 

    CORN/SORGHUM

·   &n​bsp;   USDA pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings at 61% vs. 62% last week and 55% last year.  Corn mature as of Oct. 11 was 94% vs. 69% last year & 5-year avg. of 87%; corn harvested is 41% vs. 20% last year & the avg. of 32% 

·       Corn inspections were on the light side at 24.9; trade expected 26-35 with 47/wk needed. Milo totaled only 8 K, well below the implied rate of 5.3 million per week

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 2.022 bbu compared to the Oct. USDA forecast of 2.167 bbu

·       Consultant:   Maintains Brazil estimate at 110 MMT and Argentina at 50.0 MMT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Soybeans G/E at 63%, down 1 from vs. last week but above 54% last year.  Dropping leaves as of Oct. 11 was 93% vs. 81% last year & the avg. of 90%; soybeans harvested: 61% vs. 23% last year & the avg. of 42% 

·       China accounted for nearly 60 million of the 79.3 million exported this week; total was near the upper end of the 44-81 trade range and compares to the implied rate of 41 per week

·       Wheat inspections were mid-range at 18.9 with China taking 6.7 and Brazil, 1.6

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 0.184 bbu compared to Oct. USDA forecast of 0.290 bbu

·       U.S.  winter wheat planting: 68% v. 61% last year & avg. of 61%; emergence: 41% v. 37% last year & 35% for the avg.

·       Consultant:  Brazil SB estimate unchanged at 132.0 MMT; Argentina remains at 52.0

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLX20, -$0.33 @ $39.87; EBZ, -$0.20 @ $42.24; EBZ-QCLX, +0.12; RBX, -.0156; NGX, -.183; HOX, -.0139

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00575 higher at 1.4408; basis, mixed: NYC, +$.0030 @ $.0780; Gulf,+.01425 @ +$.10925; Dallas, +$.00425 @ +$.09925; Tampa, -$.00075 @ +$.18925; LA, -$.09575 @ +$.16925

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -.125 @ 48 ¾ -49 ½; 2020’s: -.125 @ 49 ¼ -50; 2021, -.375 @ 51 ¾ -52 ½                                                 ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                      

·       The Dec RBOB/Nov ethanol spread is trading $.0197 lower at -$.2545 this morning     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        ​               ​

• Choice boxed beef declined $2.18 on Tuesday to $212.44, and is down $3.80 versus a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $0.89 v. last week at $107.37/cwt

·       The mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.75 on Tuesday to $94.70, $3.34 higher compared to last week Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®