HIGHLIGHTS

·     TR  ENDS—Mostly lower: CU, +$.0025; SQ, -$.0325; WU, -$.0625; KWU, -$.0675 

·       What caught my eye:   Ethanol production rose 50 K bpd which was considerably more than trade ideas, marking the first time that implied weekly corn/milo grind was on a pace to exceed USDA expectations since the April WASDE

·       Q2 GDP expected to equate to 35% annual drop, largest ever; ‘nuff said.  Asia—Weaker:  Nikkei, -0.26%; Shanghai, -0.23%; Hang Seng, -0.69%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -2.43%; FTSE, -1.62%; CAC, -1.99%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down --DOW, -244; S&P, -28.75; NAS, -103.5.  EXTERNALS: Sep crude, -$0.59 @ $40.68; Gold: -$9.30 @ $1,944; Sep $ Index, +.038 @ 93.470

·       T-storm Weather®: temps turn much cooler from north to south today-Fri. across U.S. Corn Belt as a large area of surface-level high pressure slides across the Great Lakes & keeps highs around 80°F & lows around 60°F for several days.  A slow-moving system crawls along edge of coolness through Sun.,  producing a swath of heavy rainfall of 1.00”-3.00” across the southern third of corn & soybeans—namely from far southern IA & MO & points east-southeast through the Delta & central & southern areas of IL-IN-OH

• CU, up $.0025 @ $3.1575; CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.2775.  The funds sold 7 K yesterday on bearish crop sentiment                                  
• SQ, dn $.0325 @ $8.8825; SX, dn $.0275 @ $8.8250.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 3 SBM, bot 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.66 Q/Q), +4; LY, $0.93
• WU, dn $.0625 @ $5.2650; WZ, dn $.0625 @ $5.3225.  Fund buying was estimated at 6 K—talk of Brazil and China sniffing around           

CORN/SORGHUM

·     &nb​sp; Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 8-22 mbu for 19/20 corn and 16-39 for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: an even cooler surface-level high passes Sun.-Tue. over US Corn Belt, further dropping high temps to mid-70s to low-80s & lows to 50s-60s.  Showers (0.10"-0.30" totals) affect at least eastern two-thirds of Corn Belt

·       Ethanol grind: total of 958,000 barrels/day for the week ending July 24—up 50 thousand (5.5%) versus last week but 7.1% lower compared to last year’s 1,031,000

·       ATI Research: there are still 5 weeks left in the crop year, but at this week’s ethanol grind pace, the demand loss for corn & milo might be a bit less than the USDA is forecasting (-559 mbu for the latter vs. -553 mbu at current pace)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 19/20 soybeans and 55-73 for 20/21; soymeal, 150-400 K MT for 19/20 and 0-75 for 20/21; soyoil, 8-30 for 19/20 and 0-5 for 20/21  

·       T-storm Weather®: an even cooler surface-level high passes Sun.-Tue. over US Corn Belt, further dropping high temps to mid-70s to low-80s & lows to 50s-60s.  Showers (0.10"-0.30" totals) affect at least eastern two-thirds of Corn Belt

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 9-24 mbu for 20/21 wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: winter wheat in Australia needs rain because the coverage of 90-day drought elevated for the third straight year, and at least some rain is likely next week as its climate turns wetter and two systems pass

ENERGY

·       Lower:  CLU20, -$0.59 @ $40.68; EBU, -$0.60 @ $43.15; EBU-QCLU, -0.01; RBU, -.0163; NGU, -.035; HOU, -0193

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.0450 yesterday to $1.24; basis, mostly weaker: NYC, -$.0050 @ +$.0750; Gulf, -$.01 @ +$.09; Dallas, -$.020 @ +$.07; Tampa, -$.0050 @ +$.1850; LA, +$.0450 @ +$.18

·       Ethanol RIN values, mixed: 2019’s, -.1250 @ 45 ¼ -45 ½; 2020’s: +.1250 @ 47 ½ -47 ¾                                   &nbs​p;                     &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                    

·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread was $.0059 wider at midweek, to $.0715/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &​nbsp;                

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.85 on Wednesday to $201.11, and is $0.04 lower compared to last week 
• Cash cattle on Wed. traded for $97.00-$97.50 throughout the Southern Plains—mostly $1.00 stronger than last week
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.51 lower on Wed. at $67.30, and is down $1.28 versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index increased $1.85 on Wed. to $52.97.  August futures fell $1.125 but are $0.105 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®