HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Mostly lower: CK, +$.0025; SK, -$.05; WK, -$.03; KWK, -$.0075
· What caught my eye: Some corn demand returning to the U.S. as Brazil exports dwindle . . . exports this week to Western Hemispher destinations other than Mexico totaled 11.9 mbu, a marketing year high
· Fed: open-ended asset purchase; Italy virus cases slow. Asia: UP!-- Nikkei, +7.13%; Shanghai, +2.34%; Hang Seng, +4.56%; EUROPE: Sharply higher—DAX, +6.56%; FTSE, +4.27%; CAC, +5.01%. WALL STREET: Futures, also up sharply--DOW, +930; S&P, +113; NAS, +375. EXTERNALS: May crude, +$1.27 @ $24.60; Gold: +$70 @ $1,638; Sep $ Index, -1.260 @ 102.060
· T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, below-normal rainfall is fairly probable across a wide second-crop corn area – initially because of little to no rain in southern areas over the next week, then due to a drier period in northern areas starting next week that will be monitored because it represents the first flash of the impending dry season. In Argentina, a heavy thunderstorm cluster affects late-corn and soybeans in central areas today-Wed., but not elsewhere due to a lack of humidities
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CK, up $.0025 @ $3.4375; CN, unch @ $3.4950. The funds were even in Monday’s trade
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SK, dn $0.05 @ $8.79; SN, dn $.0375 @ $8.8175. Funds: Bot 15 SB; 10 SBM; 7 SBO. Board crush: $1.37 (K/K), +2; LY, $1.05
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WK, dn $.03 @ $5.5950; WN, dn $.04 @ $5.5175. Heavy fund buying at 15 K
CORN/SORGHUM
·  Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is unchanged at 98.0 MMT, but with a lower bias. The lower bias is due to the dry start for the safrinha (double crop) corn in southern production areas of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul & Sao Paulo
· T-storm Weather®: in southern Brazil, rain of 0.50”-1.00” is forecast the next 2 weeks vs. normal of ~3.00”. So a rapid change to heavy rains will be needed in early April to alleviate development of dryness stress on ~40% of the crop
· ATI Research: U.S. 19/20 corn ending stocks est. is 2.192 bbu, up 135 mbu v. last week (USDA forecast is 1.892 bbu)
· According to the USDA, U.S. 2019/20 corn exports through March 12 were 0.659 bbu—down 41% compared to last year’s total of 1.119 bbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is lowered 1.0 MMT to 122.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward. The reduction was linked to a return to dryness in Rio Grande do Sul & variable yield reports in the state of Bahia
· T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, a round of heavy thunderstorms occurs Tue.-Wed., including ~35% of soybean production with 1.00” to 2.00” totals
· ATI Research: U.S. 19/20 soybean ending stocks est. is 0.480 bbu, dn 30 mbu v. last week (USDA forecast is 0.425 bbu)
· USDA crop ratings released on Monday for KS, OK & TX wheat all showed improvement compared to last week
· T-storm Weather®: only 12% & 20% of expected U.S. HRW wheat and SRW wheat were drier than normal last 30 days
ENERGY
· Higher: CLK20, +$1.27 @ $24.60; EBK, +$1.30 @ $28.32; EBK-QCLK, unch; RBK, +.0575; NGK, +.016; HOK, +.0457
· Chicago ethanol dived $.11 on Monday to $0.8650/gallon; basis, mixed: NYC, +$.0150 @ $.09; Gulf, -$.0025 @ $.09250; Dallas, -$.0475 @ +$.092; Tampa, +$.0050 @ +$.2350; LA, +$.01 @ +$.21
· Ethanol RINs values, Higher: 2018’s, +4.00 @ 24 ½-26 ½; 2019’s, +5.25 @ 23 -28; 2020’s, +5.00 @ 26 -32        
· The April RBOB/April ethanol inverse surged $.0946 on Monday to $.4712/gallon, premium ethanol
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
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Choice boxed beef increased $3.57 on Monday to $257.32, and is $32.96 higher compared to last week
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price firmed $1.05 v. last week to $109.89/cwt, but is dn $19.07 v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $3.75 on Mon. to $82.68, & is up $10.30 versus a week ago
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Current nearby board hog crush value is $30.85/cwt vs. last week’s $32.41, last month’s $42.16 & last year’s $55.51
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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