HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly lower:  CK, -$.02; SK, -$.04; WK, +$.1075; KWK, +$.1250 

·       What caught my eye: Noted that one rather well-followed consulting service sees old crop corn carry-out at 2.32 bbu (USDA: 1.89) and ending stocks for 20/21 at just under 3.4 billion (Forum adjusted for March Acreage: 3.1 billion)

·       U.S./European lock-downs may be slowing rate of new coronavirus cases.  Asia: Higher-- Nikkei, +4.24%; Shanghai, Closed; Hang Seng, +2.1%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +4.30%; FTSE, +2.08%; CAC, +3.47%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher--DOW, +796; S&P, +94.75; NAS, +302.25.  EXTERNALS: May crude, -1.16 @ $27.18; Gold: +$17.50 @ $1,660; Sep $ Index, +0.188 @ 100.865

·       T-storm Weather®: in the central U.S., temps soar across a wide area through Tue.-Wed. as a large system approaches & sends highs to the 60s-70s-80s, but then crash from northwest to southeast over Tue.-Thu. as it passes.  Some showers & thunderstorms focus on the Corn Belt & Delta as the large system approaches & passes over Mon.-Wed., but only small pockets of significant rainfall are expected (especially in / near central and northern areas of IL, IN, & OH tonight where 0.25” to 0.50” falls)

• CK, dn $.02 @ $3.2875; CN, dn $.0250 @ $3.3425.  Funds were sellers of 4 K despite some mostly new crop sales to China     
• SK, dn $.04 @ $8.5025; SN, down $.0375 @ $8.5576.  Funds: Sold 5 SB, 8 SBM, bot 2 BO.  Board crush: $1.04 (K/K), -6; LY, $1.01 
• WK, up $.1075 @ $5.60; WN, up $.09 @ $5.54.  Funds bought 6 K on Friday             

 

     CORN/SORGHUM

&mid​dot;       May 2020 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.30 ¾, which is the lowest settlement price for life of the contract.  This is also the lowest daily settlement price for nearby corn futures since July 13, 2018

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 46.1 mbu needed; 50.0 last week.  Milo—3.0 needed; 5.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in southern Brazil, some thunderstorms (0.50” to 1.00”) affect safrinha (double crop) corn today in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná; one week of dry and unseasonably cool weather follow

·       Consultant: in Brazil, planting of safrinha corn in southern Mato Grosso do Sul just finished last week—3 weeks after the ideal planting window closed; latest planted corn could be hit by frosts &/or dry weather before the crop matures  

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.2 mbu needed; 15.2 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, areas of high pressure leave a wide area dry and considerably cooler than normal over the next week, allowing soybean harvesting to accelerate through mid-month

·       Consultant: in NE Brazil, soybean yields are variable depending on if the crop encountered dryness during pod fill

·       Export inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 27.6 needed; 13.4 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., 42% and 25% of HRW wheat production was drier than normal over the last 14 and 30 days (including 58% and 46% in KS), indicating a round of rain would be ideal

ENERGY

·       Up: CLK20, -$1.17 @ $27.18; EBM, -$1.23 @ $32.88; EBM-QCLM, -$0.75; RBK, -.0240; NGK, +.025; HOK, -.0094

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0225 on Friday to $.84/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.0275 @ $.0825; Gulf, -$.0025 @ $.0950; Dallas, +$.0025 @ +$.12; Tampa, +$.0075 @ +$.21; LA, +$.0025 @ +$.16

·       Ethanol RINs values, steady/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 16 -18; 2019’s, +.3625 @ 19 ¾-20 ½; 2020’s: +0.75 @ 28 ½ -30 ½                                     ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;              

·​       The May RBOB/May ethanol inverse narrowed further, $.0098 on Friday to $.1724, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &n​bsp;          

• Choice boxed beef declined $2.20 on Friday to $230.44, and is $22.40 lower versus a week ago
• Over the past 9 trading days, choice boxed beef has declined $26.88 (-10.4%)
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $2.20 lower on Fri. at $56.47, & is down $16.25 versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $2.43 on Fri. to $60.65.  April futures were $4.475 lower & are $20.425 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®