HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly Lower: CH, -$.0075; SF, -$.0350; WH, -$0.0275; KWH, +$.01.  Del’y: SBM, 414; SBO, 37 C, 79;; HRW, 5

·       What caught my eye: In 2 months time, U.S. Gulf fob corn prices have swung from being $.12/bu MORE expensive than Brazil, to $.24 CHEAPER as of yesterday.  When might this translate into a pick-up in the export pace?

·       Fed says interest rates “may” not rise in 2020; awaiting more tariff news. ASIA: Mostly firm—Nikkei, +0.14%; Shanghai, -0.30%; Hang Seng, +1.37%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.14%; FTSE, +0.61%; CAC, +0.09%.  WALL STREET—Futures, slightly firm—DOW, +11; S&P, +2.25; NAS, +9.75.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$0.16 @ $58.81; Gold: +$4.10 @ $1,479; $ Index, +.033 @ 97.161

·       T-storm Weather®: rain fall amounts in South America were increased  by ½ to 1” over the next week in Central Argentina as thunderstorms develop late yesterday and into today.  A few more showers are expected by the weekend along with rains forecast for much of Brazil, except for the more northern regions.  The outlook for  Brazil is slightly drier but areas other than Bahis will receive fairly abundant quantities

• CH, up $.0075 @ $3.72; CK, up $.0075 @ $3.7875.  Heavy fund selling at mid-week, estimated at 15 K
• SF, dn $.0350 @ $8.90; SH, dn $.0350 @ $9.0450.  Funds, sold 6 K SB; 5 SBM & 4 SBO.  Board crush: $1.01, -3; LY, $.88,-3; 
• WH, dn $.0275 @ $5.1650; WK, dn $.025 @ $5.2025.  The funds sold 3 K on Wednesday   

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Corn Export Sales released at 7:30 AM CST.  16-31 mbu expected with 33/week needed. Sales were 21.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: a warm-up next week begins to diminish snowpack on unharvested corn in the Dakotas; some rain-snow Thu., especially Sat., and once or twice next week are not ideal for remaining harvesting in MI and WI

·       Ethanol production rose 12 K bpd to 1.072 million barrels.  This was 8 K above the average estimate and also exceeded the top end of the 1.056-1.068 trade range

·       The week of December 12^th also saw a sizable build in ethano inventories, jumpting 1.18 million to 21.615

• December 2019 corn futures closed at $3.57 ¾ on Wednesday, the lowest settlement price since $3.54 ½ on Sep 19

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Soybea​n Export Sales released at 7:30 CST.  18-40 million expected with 21 mbu per  week needed and 25 sold LW
• January 2020 soybean futures closed at $8.93 ½ on Wednesday, 26 ½ cents below SF19’c close a year ago. 19/20 c/o estimated at 475 (11.9% stx/use), against 955 (23.2%) in the Dec 2018 WASDE.   Go figure

·       Wheat Export Sales released at 7:30 CST.  7-17 expected; 13.3 per week needed with 8.4 sold last week

·       T-storm Weather®: little to no precip is forecast over the next week for U.S. HRW wheat; wet for SRW in southeast

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLG20, +$0.16 @ $58.81; EBG, +$0.40 @ $64.12; EBG-QCLG, +.27; RBG, +.0028; NGG, +.020; HOG, +.0130

·       Weekly corn grind for ethanol production after 12 weeks is averaging about 5.3 bbu, 75 million below the USDA

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.0350 to $1.3650; basis values versus Chicago were mixed:  NYC, +$.0050 @ $.13; Gulf, -$.0150 @ $.1350; Dallas, unch @ +$.09; Tampa, -$.0025@ +$.1950; LA, +$.0050 @ +$.2650

·       Ethanol RINs values were weaker: 2018’s, -.3750 @ 6 -6 ½; 2019’s, -.1250 @ 12 ¼ -12 ¾; 2020’s, -.250 @ 18-18 ¾                                 &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;

·       The January RBOB/January ethanol spread lost $.0104 as it narrowed to $.3041/gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       ​;                

• Choice boxed beef declined $2.84 on Wednesday to $218.65 and is $8.30 lower compared to last week 
• The USDA was unchanged on its 2019 and 2020  U.S. pork export forecasts:  550 and 580 million pounds, respectively

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value edged $0.19 higher Wed. to $82.39 and is up $2.66 versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index gained $.99 on Tue. to $59.46.  December futures gained $0.225 & are $1.240 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®