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TRENDS Mostly lower CH, Down 4, SF, Down 3,WH, Down 4

December 4, 2020 07:33 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly lower: CH, -0.01; SF, -$.0025; WH, -$.02; KWH, -$.01. Dalian Jan futures: C, -6; SB, -36 ½.  Deliveries: BO, 6; SRW, 80        

·       What caught my eye:  Although China was again the leading bean buyer at 17.5 yesterday, USDA confirmed 4.9 mbu cancelled

·       Most markets are higher as the U.S. market awaits the weekly jobs report with a 432 K consensus gain

  • Asia: Mostly firm:  Nikkei, -0.22%; Shanghai, +0.07%; Hang Seng, +0.40%
  • EUROPE:  Higher:  DAX, +0.03%; FTSE, +0.90%; CAC, +0.41% 
  • WALL STREET: Firmer–DOW futures, +120; S&P, +12.25; NAS, +49.25
  • EXTERNALS: Jan crude, +$0.64 @ $46.28Gold: +$2.60 $1,844; Mar $ Index, -0.160 @ 90.485
  • T-storm Weather®: A series of cool fronts trigger thunderstorms in varying areas at varying times over the next 10 to 14 days in Brazil, producing near-normal rainfall central and north, and near- to above-normal rainfall south (likely wettest in Paraná).  Argentina has not been as dry as Brazil, though little rain is expected over the next 7 to 10 days.  Some thunderstorms follow in 10 to 14 days when the jet stream aligns nearby, but coverages and amounts will take days to determine
  • CH, dn $.01 @ $4.2550; CK, dn $.01 @ $4.2775.  The funds were estimated buyers of 5 K on Thursday   
  • SF, dn $.0025 @ $11.68; SH, unch @ $11.7025.  Funds: bot 5 SB, 4 SBM, 6 SBO. Board crush: $1.21 (Z/F), +5; LY, $1.15
  • WH, dn $.02 @ $5.8250; WK, dn $.02 @ $5.8575.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday, no China business reported                 

   CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. corn export sales for 20/21 as of Nov. 26 were a record 1.099 bbu, which is more than triple the 0.326 bbu from last year.  Mexico bought 25.9 mbu and China, 6.1 in the latest reporting week

·       T-storm Weather®: Scattered thunderstorms on Thu. affected most full-season corn in southern Brazil.  Some additional rain forms in southern Brazil through Sat., with best totals in parts of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul

·       Consultant:  Rainfall last week and over the weekend in Argentina will help to recharge the soil moisture in the central and northern part of the country, and allow farmers to start their second phase of corn planting

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Unshipped U.S. soybean export sales as of Nov. 26 were a record 0.926 bbu—up 153% from 0.366 bbu a year ago

·       T-storm Weather®: Only 14%, 2%, 2%, 1%, and 1% of expected soybean production in Brazil was wetter than normal over the 7, 14, 30, 60, and 90 days ending Tuesday (though pockets of substantial rain followed south since then)

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs soybean planting at 48% in Argentina, down from the five-year average of 56%

·       ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. SRW wheat export sales as of Nov. 26 were 15 mbu—dn 37% from the five-year average

·       T-storm Weather®: Little to no precipitation of consequence is expected over the next 7-10 days on U.S. wheat

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLF21, +$0.64 @ $46.28; EBG, +$0.71 @ $49.42; EBG-CLG+0.08RBF, +.0145NGF, -.009HOF, +.0154

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0050 firmer at $1.28875/gallon. Basis, mostly easier:  NYC, unch @ $.10125; Gulf, +$.0050 @ +$.09125; Dallas, -$.04 @ +$.05125; Tampa, -$.0650 @ +$.17125; LA, -$.0450 @ +$.13125

·       Ethanol RINs, higher: 2019’s, up 0.75 @ 65 -67; 2020’s, up 0.75 @ 66 ¾-67 ¾; 2021, up 0.75 @ 68 –70                                                                &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;             

· &n​bsp;     The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread is again weaker, off $.0022 at -$.0406 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &n​bsp;    

  • Choice boxed beef was $1.70 lower on Thu. at $239.19, and is down $5.87 compared to a week ago 

·       Light cash cattle trade noted on Thu. at $109-$110 in the South—steady to $1.00 lower vs. rest of the week's trade

  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value plummeted $3.90 on Thu. to $75.13, and is $2.17 lower versus last week 
  • Lean Hog Index eased $0.16 on Thu. to $66.55.  December futures fell $0.325 and are $0.525 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

                    



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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