Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly higher:  CZ, +$.0350; SX, -$.0050; WZ, +$.05; KWZ, +$.0250

·       What caught my eye: Continue to be impressed with how strong Chinese soybean crush is:  during the past month, up 411 K MT per week versus 2019. Just 6 weeks into the 20/21, already up 2.6 MMT or 1/3^rd of the USDA forecasted ANNUAL increase! 

·       Strong corporate earnings versus COVID cases spiking in both the U.S. and Western Europe

• Asia:  Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -0.04%; Shanghai, +0.10%; Hang Seng, -0.53%
• EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.50%; FTSE, -0.05%; CAC, -1.09%
• WALL STREET: trying to bounce back–DOW futures, +35; S&P, +8.5; NAS, +44.25
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$0.50 @ $39.05; Gold: -$2.90 @ $1,903; Mar $ Index, -0.0-19 @ 92.990
• T-storm Weather®: In the U.S., record-setting coldness continues through early today in the HRW wheat belt as temps stay well below freezing and average -30F to -45F from normal.  A milder period slowly assembles as the week progresses, accompanied by heavy rain, snow, and ice for the southern third of the crop through Wed.-Thu.  The same system also produces widespread rain across the southeast half of the Corn Belt over Wed.-Fri., turning SRW wheat areas wetter
• CZ, up $.0350 @ $4.2125; CH, up $.03 @ $4.2150.  The funds opened the week selling 4 K          
• SX, dn $.0050 @ $10.8725; SF, dn $.0025 @ $10.8325.  Funds bot 2 SB; 4 SBM; 5 SBO. Board crush: $1.48 (Z/X), +.06; LY, $0.88
• WZ, up $.05 @ $6.25; WH, up $.0350 @ $6.2375.  U.S. HRW moisture outlook improves, funds sell 8 K               

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn harvested as of Oct. 25 was 72% compared to 60% last week, 38% last year & the 5-year avg. of 56% 

·       T-storm Weather®: A dry and mild period lasting at least 10 days follows the end of precipitation later this week across the U.S. Corn Belt

·       Consultant: Brazil 20/21 corn est. is a record 110.0 MMT.  Despite the anticipated delayed safrinha (double crop) corn planting, Brazilian farmers still expected to increase safrinha corn acreage due to record high domestic corn prices

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 1.744 bbu compared to the Oct. USDA forecast of 2.167 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybeans harvested as of Oct. 25 were 83% compared to 75% last week, 57% last year & the 5-year avg. of 73% 

·       T-storm Weather®: Occasional thunderstorms develop over the next two weeks across soybeans in central and northern Brazil, marking a more convincing end to the dry season; near- to above-normal rainfall totals are forecast

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 0.114 bbu compared to Oct. USDA forecast of 0.290 bbu

·       U.S. winter wheat planting: 85% v. 83% last year & avg. of 80%; good to excellent ratings est. at 41% v. 56% a year ago

·       ATI Research: Black Sea maintaining an aggressive wheat export stance, as 4-week avg. shipments are up 27% v. 2019  

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLZ20, +$0.50 @ $39.05; EBZ, +$0.54 @ $1.01; EBZ-CLZ, +.0064; RBX, +.0164; NGX, +.020; HOX, +.0192

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.01 Monday to $1.5925.  Basis, mixed: NYC, +$.0350 @ $.10725; Gulf, -$.01 @ +$.0925; Dallas, -$.01 @ +$.0725; Tampa, -$.050 @ +$.1525; LA, unch @ +$.1425

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +1.50 @ 59-61; 2020’s: +1.50 @ 60 -61; 2021, +$1.00 @ 61-63                                    ​                                                  ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;        

·     &​nbsp; The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is off $.0002 to $.17750 per gallon this morning  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                       &n​bsp;  

• ​ Choice boxed beef firmed $0.34 on Monday to $207.83, but is still $1.91 lower versus the previous week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $2.45 v. last week at $105.07/cwt, and is dn $5.06 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $0.83 on Mon. to $90.70, and is $6.18 lower compared to a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $33.47/cwt vs. last week’s $38.99, last month’s $41.24 & last year’s $48.00

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®