HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly higher:  CK, -$.0025; SK, +$.12; WK, +$.1625; KWK, +$.1225 

·       What caught my eye: Recent USDA flash sales announcements in soybean will hopefully lead to a fairly quick pick-up in weekly export inspections.  Otherwise, near-term shipments are on the verge of falling to a  lead to a 15-year low, less than 15/week

·       Rescue package stalls in the Senate.  Asia: Mostly lower-- Nikkei, +2.02%; Shanghai, -3.11%%; Hang Seng, -4.86%; EUROPE: Sharply lower—DAX, -3.58%; FTSE, -4.22%; CAC, -3.30%.  WALL STREET: Futures, lower--DOW, -582; S&P, -68.75; NAS, -189.  EXTERNALS: May crude, -$0.13 @ $22.50; Gold: +$12 @ $1,497; Sep $ Index, -0.587 @ 102.995

·       T-storm Weather®: southern ~40% of second-corn in Brazil remains at risk of dryness stress because of: 1) dry conditions; 2) no rain for at least another week; and 3) only some thunderstorms follow.  Corn to the north stays wetter as scattered thunderstorms continue over the next five days, but a much drier period follows and needs to be monitored in the first flash of the impending dry season.  In Argentina, a round of rain would be ideal for soybeans, but only some form Tue.-Wed. and again next week

• CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.4350; CN, unch @ $3.4950.  Funds buy 5 K as China enters U.S. market with a 756 K 19-20 corn purchase
• SK, up $0.12 @ $8.7450; SN, up $.12 @ $8.7675.  Funds: Bot 14 SB; 12 SBM; 3 SBO.  Board crush: $1.35 (K/K), +5; LY, $1.05   WK, up $.16 @ $5.5525; WN, up $.1525 @ $5.51.  Funds buy 5 K as China books 340 K MT 20-21 HRW                                    

​ CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 45.8 mbu needed; 38.5 last week.  Milo—3.1 needed; 3.0 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in southern Brazil, where ~40% of safrinha (double crop) corn is produced, dry weather prevails for at least one week.  In central Brazil, another 1.00”-2.00” occurs on the northern ~60% of safrinha corn this week

·       Consultant: in Parana, Brazil, the planting window for safrinha (double crop) corn is now essentially closed.  Farmers are concerned about the current dry conditions and the potential impact on germination and stand establishment

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week pegged Argentina corn harvest at 13.6%.  Corn harvest has expanded into the center of the national agricultural area.  Final corn production estimate remains at 50.0 MMT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 29.2 mbu needed; 16.0 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, thunderstorms encroach on key areas from the west this week, but likely stay west of key soybean areas due to a lack of humidity from surface-level high pressure in the Atlantic

·       Consultant: in Brazil, dryness has led to rapid soybean harvest in states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias & Minas Gerais

·       Export inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 25.0 needed; 16.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: with the jet stream remaining loosely aligned across the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days, most HRW and SRW winter wheat remains near and wetter than normal into early April

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLK20, -$.13 @ $22.50; EBK, -$1.30 @ $30.30; EBK-QCLK, -1.21; RBK, -.0559; NGK, -.059; HOK, -.01​43 Chicago ethanol lost $.03 on Friday to $0.9750/gallon; basis, mostly firmer:  NYC, -$.0125 @ $.0750; Gulf, +$.0050 @ $.0950; Dallas, +$.0050 @ +$.1400; Tampa, +$.0150 @ +$.23; LA, +$.03 @ +$.20

·       Ethanol RINs values, Higher: 2018’s, +3.5 @ 20 ½-22 ½; 2019’s, +4.25 @ 19 ½ -21; 2020’s, +4.00 @ 23 -25                           &​nbsp;                                                 &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                     

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol inverse increased $.0446 on Friday to $.3766 per gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &nb​sp;                    

• Choice boxed beef was $3.88 higher on Friday at $253.75, and is up $45.61 versus a week ago 
• Cattle on Feed: March 1 on feed, 100.2% (100.2% avg est); Feb. placed, 92.1% (92.4%); Feb. Market, 105.5% (105.6%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.30 on Fri. to $78.93, & is $10.05 higher compared to last week

• CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.86 on Fri. at $62.20.  April futures firmed $0.425 but remain $0.625 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®