HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly firm: CZ, +$.0325; SX, +$.06; WZ, +$.0050; KWZ, -$.0150.  Del’ys: SBM, 22 

·       What caught my eye: Big Surprise!  June 1 corn stx revised 205 mbu LOWER with reductions of 55 mbu for IL as well as 22-26 million smaller numbers for each of IN, NE, SD and MN.  Unprecedented.  Confidence in/implications for future 20-21 numbers?

·       Hopes for a stimulus agreement rise . . . Mnuchin says White House prepared to up its ante

• Asia:  Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -0.00%; Shanghai, holiday; Hang Seng, holiday
• EUROPE: firmer—DAX, +0.01%; FTSE, +0.85%; CAC, +0.67%
• WALL STREET: positive-–DOW futures, +217; S&P, +27.75; NAS, +134.75
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$0.35 @ $39.87; Gold: +$7.10 @ $1,903; Mar $ Index, -.122 @ 93.775
• T-storm Weather®: Despite some showers across the northeast Corn Belt today and a wider area Sat.-Sun., rainfall remains limited across the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days.  Temperatures will be much cooler than normal in all areas through Sunday, with readings of -10°F to -15°F from normal with maximums mostly in the 50s-60s and several frosts and freezes within the northern halves of the Corn Belt and Plains as minimums reach the upper-20s to mid-30s at least once
• CZ, up $.0325 @ $3.8225; CH, up $.0275 @ $3.91.  Huge fund buying (40 K) as Sep 1 stx slashed 11.5%/258 mbu     
• SX, up $.06 @ $10.2950; SF, up $.0550 @ $10.3275. Funds buy 25 K SB; 15 SBM; 5 SBO. Board crush: $0.91 (V/X), +.02; LY, $0.67
• WZ, up $.0050 @ $5.5850; WH, up $.0025 @ $5.84.  The funds bought 15 K on report day                       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Expor​t Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 31 – 55 mbu for 20/21 corn

·       ATI Research: Updated est. of U.S. corn ending stocks for 20/21 is 2.057 bbu vs. latest USDA forecast of 2.503 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: A mild to unseasonably-mild period initiates west to east Oct. 5-9 across U.S. Corn Belt as coolness retreats & southwesterly winds develop, sending highs to 70s-80s across a wide area later next week & into mid-Oct.

·       Ethanol grind: 881,000 barrels/day for week ending Sep. 25—down 25 thou (2.8%) v. last week & 8.0% lower v. 2019

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 55- 92 mbu for 20/21 soybeans; soymeal, (50) - 50 K MT for 19/20 and 150 - 400 for 20/21; soyoil, 0 - 5 for 19/20 and 0 - 30 for 20/21  

·       ATI Research: Updated est. of U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 is 0.295 bbu vs. latest USDA forecast of 0.460 bbu

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 7 - 18 mbu for 20/21 wheat

·       ATI Research: Updated est. of U.S. all wheat ending stocks for 20/21 is 0.843 bbu vs. latest USDA forecast of 0.925 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: A hard frost & freeze affects southern wheat in Argentina Sat.; temperatures reach the mid-20s to mid-30s (-4°C to +2°C), with the coldest readings in southern Buenos Aires where ~25% of wheat is produced

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLX20, -$0.35 @ $39.87; EBZ, -$0.32 @ $41.98; EBZ-QCLX, +0.08; RBX, -.0036; NGX, +.053; HOX, -.0080

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.0325 to $1.4450; basis, higher: NYC, +$.0950 @ $.0950; Gulf, +.0025 @ +$.08; Dallas, +$.02 @ +$.0450; Tampa, +$.04 @ +$.1550; LA, +$.0175 @ +$.1150

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +.1250 @ 45 ¾ – 47 ½; 2020’s: +0.1250 @ 47 -47 ¾                            &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;               

​ ·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is trading $.0477 lower at -$.2311 this morning   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &nb​sp;          

• Choice boxed beef was $0.58 higher on Wednesday at $217.74, and is $1.87 higher compared to a week ago 
• Cash cattle trade developed on Wed. in parts of the North for $167, $2.00 higher than last week's average
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.84 on Wed. to $90.39, but is still up $2.24 versus last week 
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.63 on Wed. to $76.54.  October futures gained $0.425 but are $3.740 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®