HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 am CST

·       TRENDS—Mostly firm: CZ, +$.03; SF, +$.0350; WZ, +$.01; KWZ, -$.0025.  Del’y:  RR, 0 SB, 60.  Dalian: C, +3 ½; SB, + 13 ½  

·       What caught my eye: Several things in today’s WASDE could potentially affect the market.  The most significant in terms of bushel impact could be the Ukraine corn crop; Chinese SB crush/imports and whether or not the USDA ups China’s corn imports

·       Overseas markets mostly higher; Pfizer vaccine may have the unintended consequence of curbing further stimulus measures

• Asia:  Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +0.26%; Shanghai, -0.40%; Hang Seng, +1.10%
• EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, -0.04%; FTSE, +1.19%; CAC, +1.09%
• WALL STREET: Mostly lower–DOW futures, +160; S&P, -12.25; NAS, -230
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$0.39 @ $40.68; Gold: +$20 @ $1,874; Mar $ Index, +0.165 @ 92.850
• T-storm Weather®: Likely scenario is for 2.50”-4.50” of rain to fall the next 2 weeks across soybeans in central & northern Brazil compared to normal rainfall of ~3.00” to ~5.00”, thereby ending the dry spell.  In Argentina, the eastern 40% to 50% of early-corn and soybeans will be sharply drier than normal over the next two weeks.  Some rain forms to the west this week and weekend
• CZ, up $.03 @ $4.1050; CH, up $.03 @ $4.1825. The funds began the week buying 3 K            
• SF, up $.0350 @ $11.14; SH, up $.0250 @ $11.1125.  Funds bot 6 SB; 3 SBM; 4 SBO. Board crush: $1.30 (Z/X), -$.02; LY, $0.86
• WZ, up $.01 @ $5.9850; WH, up $.0150 @ $6.07.  The funds were again sellers of 3 K on Monday                              

CORN/SORGHUM<​/p>

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn crop is 14.659 bbu versus 14.722 in October

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn yield is 177.7 bpa (range: 176.0-179.2) vs. 178.4 in Oct.

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. corn carryout, 2.033 bbu vs. 2.167 in October

·       T-storm Weather®: A strong cold front turns temps sharply colder today across the U.S. Corn Belt.  Rainfall accompanies the front, with heaviest totals across Iowa, Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota & northern Missouri

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. soybean crop is 4.251 bbu versus 4.268 in October

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. soybean yield is 51.6 bpa (range: 50.8-52.5) vs. 51.9 in Oct.

·       USDA Supply/Demand: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.235 bbu vs. 0.290 in October

·       T-storm Weather®: Approximately 40% of Argentina soybean production will be much drier than normal over the next two weeks, while 5% is wetter than normal

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. wheat carryout, 0.881 bbu vs. 0.883 in October

·       T-storm Weather®: Rain develops today & Fri. across U.S. central/southern Plains, but mainly just east of HRW wheat

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLZ20, +$0.39 @ $40.68; EBF, +$0.46 @ $42.86; EBF-CLF, +0.04; RBZ, +.0150; NGZ, +.03; HOZ, +.0220

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0125 on Monday to $1.5435/gallon. Basis, all firmer: NYC, +$.0090 @ +$.00650; Gulf, +$.01275 @ +$.0665; Dallas, +$.00775 @ +$.04150; Tampa,  +$.00775 @ +$.13650; LA, +$.0275 @ +$.04650

·       Ethanol RIN values, higher: 2019’s, +6.00 @ 69 ¼-74 1/4; 2020’s: +6.00 @ 70-74; 2021, +4.50 @ 70 ½ - 75 ½                                ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                 

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading $.0124 weaker at -$.2417 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &nb​sp;                

• Choice boxed beef soared $3.07 on Mon.—largest one-day increase since Aug. 14—and is $8.74 higher vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $2.09 v. last week at $106.33/cwt, but is dn $8.27 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.87 on Mon. to $84.82, and is up $2.03 versus the previous week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $34.98/cwt vs. last week’s $33.53, last month’s $40.43 & last year’s $49.23

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather