TRENDS Mostly firm CZ, Up 2, SF, Up 16, WZ, Down 1

November 17, 2020 07:34 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

· TRENDS—Mostly firm: CZ, +$.03; SF, +$.1425; WZ, +$.0025; KWZ, -$.02. Del’y: RR, 0; SB, 0. Dalian: C, +3 ½; SB, +12

· What caught my eye: A rather sizable upward revision in soybean inspections for the week ending November 28^th of 13.1 million to 104.8 million. The SON total has a good chance of exceeding 950, subject to weekly reporting

· For the moment, surge in new Covid cases overshadows vaccine development

Asia: Mostly firm: Nikkei, +0.41%; Shanghai, -0.21%; Hang Seng, +0.18%
EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.42%; FTSE, -0.88%; CAC, -0.34%
WALL STREET: Mostly weaker–DOW futures, -168; S&P, -20; NAS, +18
EXTERNALS: Dec crude, -$0.01 @ $41.33; Gold: -$0.60 @ $1,887; Mar $ Index, -0.340 @ 92.240
T-storm Weather®: Scattered rain affects crops in much of Brazil over the next 3-5 days, except in / near Rio Grande do Sul. After thunderstorms end from south to north over Thu.-Sun., 7-10 days of drying follow. A system then approaches southern Brazil in 10-14 days to bring some rain to the region, but exact setup will take all week to resolve. In Argentina, some rain affects crops in / near San Luis & Córdoba this weekend, but most holds for 7-10 days; 1.00"-2.00" forecast the next 2 weeks (~2.00" is norm)
CZ, up $.03 @ $4.1925; CH, up $.02 @ $4.2625. Less than ideal S Am weather contributed to 10 K in fund buying on Monday
SF, up $.1425 @ $11.6775; SH, up $.1350 @ $11.6775. Funds bot 4 BO, 2 SM. Board crush: $1.15 (Z/F), -$.01; LY, $0.92
WZ, up $.0025 @ $5.9825; WH, unch @ $6.0475. Funds buy 3 K to open the week with row crops help to lift wheat higher

CORN/SORGHUM

· U.S. corn harvested as of Nov. 15 was 95% compared to 91% last week, 73% last year & the 5-year avg. of 87%

· T-storm Weather®: Full-season corn across southern Brazil remains dry, including the largest producing state of Rio Grande do Sul. At present, the best rain chances for Rio Grande do Sul are more than 10 days out

· Consultant: Brazil 20/21 corn est. dn 2.0 MMT to 106.0. Dry conditions in southern Brazil have already compromised yield potential for some of the full-season corn, & safrinha (double crop) corn is going to be planted later than normal

· ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 1.622 bbu compared to the Nov. USDA forecast of 1.702 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

· U.S. soybeans harvested as of Nov. 15 were 96% compared to 92% last week, 89% last year & the 5-year avg. of 93%

· T-storm Weather®: 1.00” to 3.00” of rain is forecast over the next two weeks across soybeans in central Brazil, while 2.00” to 4.00” is projected further to the north. This compares to normal amounts of 3.00” to 5.00”

· ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 0.118 bbu compared to Nov. USDA forecast of 0.190 bbu

· U.S. winter wheat planting: 96% v. 94% last year & avg. of 94%; good/excellent ratings +1% to 46% vs. 52% last year

· ATI Research: Black Sea wheat exports were up very slightly in the latest week, but are ~24% more than a year ago

ENERGY

· Firm: CLZ20, -$0.01 @ $41.33; EBF, -$0.05 @ $43.78; EBF-CLF, -0.06; RBZ, -.0042; NGZ, +.020; HOZ, -.0025

· Chicago ethanol was $.0025 firmer on Monday at $1.4250. Basis, weaker: NYC, -$.0125 @ +$.04; Gulf, -$.0375 @ +$.03; Dallas, -$.0425 @ +$.0450; Tampa, -$.0325 @ +$.1450; LA, -$.0175 @ +$.1150

· Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -1.75 @ 59-62 ½; 2020’s, -1.25 @ 60 -63 ½; 2021, -1.25 @ 61 – 64 ½   ;      

· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.0075 weaker at -$.2007 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ; ;

Choice boxed beef firmed $0.97 on Monday to $226.95, and is up $9.56 versus last week
5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $3.29 v. last week at $109.62/cwt, but is dn $5.57 v. last year
The mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.65 on Mon. to $80.34, but is $4.48 lower vs. a week ago
Current nearby board hog crush value is $32.17/cwt vs. last week’s $34.98, last month’s $38.99 & last year’s $48.12

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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