HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly firm: CZ, +$.0275; SX, +$.0150; WZ, -$.01; KWZ, unch.  Dalian Jan C is up $.12; Jan SB, off 1 ¼ cents

·       What caught my eye: First quarter soybean exports through Sep 17^th are on a 728 mbu quarterly pace. One could make the argument that given the level of unshipped sales, something north of 950 million for SON is very possible

·       Global markets, including U.S. stock futures are up sharply on anticipation of some positive corporate news

• Asia:  Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +1.32%; Shanghai, -0.06%; Hang Seng, +1.04%
• EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +2.82%; FTSE, +1.53%; CAC, +2.09%
• WALL STREET: Sharply higher-–DOW futures, +363; S&P, +44; NAS, +194
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, +$0.18 @ $40.43; Gold: -$4.20 @ $1,862; Mar $ Index, -.372 @ 94.275
• Weather: scattered showers are forecast today across the central U.S. Corn Belt; heaviest south, which could cause corn and soybean harvest delays.  Mostly dry conditions impact the region on Tue.  Temps are forecast to be below normal today-Tue.  Scattered showers develop today-Tue. across the eastern Corn Belt; moderate rainfall amounts are forecast at times.  Temps are forecast to be below normal today-Tue.  The western Corn Belt is forecast to be cool & dry throughout the week 
• CZ, dn $.0250 @ $3.6275; CH, dn $.02 @ $3.7125.  Funds ended the week selling 2 K     
• SX, up $.0050 @ $10.03; SF, unch @ $10.0625. Funds bot 3 K SB; 4 BO; 3 SBM. Board crush: $1.00 (V/X), +.10; LY, $0.70
• WX, dn $.0325 @ $5.41; WH, dn $.03 @ $5.4850.  The funds sold 4 K on Friday                     

CORN/SORGHUM​

·       Good/Excellent ratings for U.S. corn expected to be steady in today’s USDA Crop Progress report at 61% (vs. 57% last year); U.S. corn harvested as of Sep. 27 est. at 20% vs. 8% last week, 10% last year & the 5-year average of 16%

·       USDA Grain Stocks report on Sep. 30: Avg. trade est. for U.S. Sep. 1 corn stocks, 2.250 bbu (range: 2.120-2.574)

·       Weather: behind rainfall early this week across the U.S. Corn Belt (heaviest totals further east), temperatures will fall significantly, leading to frost potential across the north in the middle to late part of this week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 45.9 mbu needed; 29.7 last week.  Milo—5.1 needed; 2.81 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       So​ybean Good/Excellent ratings unch to +1% v. last week; harvest est. at 17% v. 6% last week, 5% last year & 15% avg

·       USDA Grain Stocks report on Sep. 30: Avg. trade est. for U.S. Sep. 1 soybean stocks, 0.576 bbu (range: 0.490-0.608)

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; soybeans, 40.7 mbu needed; 48.2 last week

·       USDA Grain Stocks report on Sep. 30: Avg. trade est. for U.S. Sept. 1 all wheat stocks, 2.242 bbu (range: 2.150-2.380)

·       USDA Small Grains Summary report Sep. 30: Avg. est. U.S. wheat crop, 1.841 bbu (range: 1.823-1.920); 1.838 in Aug.

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.3 mbu needed; 17.3 last week

ENERGY

·       Mostly firm: CLX20, +$0.18 @ $40.43; EBX, -$0.02 @ $41.90; EBX-QCLX, -0.19; RBX, +.0040; NGX, -.059; HOX, +.0058

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0075 firmer Friday at $1.3925; basis, mostly firm: NYC, +$.03 @ +$.0850; Gulf, +.0025 @ +$.0925; Dallas, +$.0075 @ +$.0425; Tampa, +$.0075 @ +$.1375; LA, -$.0025 @ +$.1075

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +1.125 @ 45 – 46 12/; 2020’s: +0.625 @ 46 ½-48                                               ​;                        ​                                                  ​                        &​nbsp;                   

·       The Oct RBOB/Sept ethanol spread is +.0001 firmer at -$0.1982 this morning   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             &nb​sp;         

• Choice boxed beef was $1.86 higher on Friday at $219.34, and is up $3.70 versus the previous week 
• Cattle on Feed: Sep. 1 on feed, 103.8% (103.4% avg est); Aug placed, 109.2% (105.9%); Aug Marketed, 96.9% (96.6%)
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.72 on Fri. to $90.79, but is still $4.33 higher versus a week ago 
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.83 on Fri. to $74.53.  October futures soared $2.275 but are $2.780 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®