Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly firm:  CN, +.0050; SN, -$.0175; WN, +$.0725; KWN, +$.05

·       What caught my eye: sales expectations for corn, soybeans, SBM and SBO are all well above the implied numbers needed to reach the USDA’s export forecasts for each

·       Weekly jobless claims & U.S. purchasing managers survey will be in the spotlight.  Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, -0.21%; Shanghai, -0.55%; Hang Seng, -0.49%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -1.34%; FTSE, -0.82%; CAC, -0.92%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Lower--DOW, -150; S&P, -19; NAS, -56.25.   EXTERNALS: July crude, +$0.68 @ $34.17; Gold: -$18.30 @ $1,734; Sep $ Index, +0.188 @ 99.325

·       T-storm Weather®: scattered thunderstorms affect central & southern Plains today-Fri., & the eastern Dakotas & western Corn Belt Fri.  Most other areas stay dry through then, except for some light rain in parts of Ohio.  Better rainfall affects a wide area over Sat.-Tue. when a larger system passes through a mild air mass and generates more rain in the central and southern Plains, and across a wider area of the Corn Belt most likely slowing planting in much of the already-wet areas of the Corn Belt in 3-5 days

• CN, up $.0050 @ $3.20; CU, up $.0025 @ $3.2450.  The funds sold 2 K yesterday               
• SN, dn $.0175 @ $8.45; SQ, dn $.0175 @ $8.4750.  Funds: bot 3 SB; 2 SBM, 4 SBO.  Board crush: $0.82 (N/N), 0; LY, $1.26
• WN, up $.0725 @ $5.21; WU, up $.0725 @ $5.01.  Fund buying totaled 7 K as weather concerns heightened for the EU & Russia  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 20-39 for 19/20 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: the exact setup for U.S. Corn Belt beyond Tue. will take days to determine for May 27 - June 2; most likely scenario is for a couple cool fronts to pass & generate some rain, but not widespread & organized totals

·       Ethanol grind: total of 663,000 barrels/day for the week ending May 15—up 46 thousand versus last week but down 38.1% compared to last year’s 1,071,000

·       T-storm Weather®: dry weather occurs for second-crop corn through today in Brazil.  Scattered thunderstorms follow Fri.-Sat. on southern corn when a cool front produces 1.00”-2.00” in Mato Grosso do Sul and drought-stricken Paraná

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 18-37 mbu for 19/20 soybeans; soymeal, 75-250 K MT; soyoil, 15-45 

·       T-storm Weather®: the exact setup for U.S. Corn Belt beyond Tue. will take days to determine for May 27 - June 2; most likely scenario is for a couple cool fronts to pass & generate some rain, but not widespread & organized totals

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unchanged at 50.0 MMT, with a neutral to slightly lower bias going forward

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 4-9 mbu for 19/20 all wheat and 4-15 mbu for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: some rain returns to North Dakota this weekend, slowing spring wheat planting and ending the ongoing period of dry and mild weather

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLN20, +$0.68 @ $34.17; EBN, +$0.57 @ $36.32; EBN-QCLN, -$0.07; RBM, +.0085; NGM, -.038; HOM, +.0163

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.0110 to 1.14/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, +$.001 @ +$.07; Gulf, +$.0060 @ $.09; Dallas, -$.0040 @ +$.14; Tampa, -$.0140 @ +$.23; LA, -$.0040 @ +$.20

·       Ethanol RINs values, mixed: 2018’s, +.50 @ 24 ½ -27; 2019’s, -$2.00 @ 35 -35 ½; 2020’s: +1.50 @ 37 ½ -38 ¼                                       ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                      

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol inverse narrowed $.0506 to $.0812/gallon at mid-week, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &​nbsp;                  <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef declined $5.43 on Wednesday to $404.04, and is $61.95 lower compared to a week ago
• Estimates for May 22 USDA Cattle on Feed: May 1 on feed, 95.0%; Placed in April, 77.1%; Marketed in April, 74.7%
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $2.16 on Wed. to $98.94, but is still $17.08 lower versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index was $1.06 lower on Wed. at $65.98.  June futures gained $0.225 but are $9.105 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®