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TRENDS Mostly firm CN, Up 2, SN, Up 7, WN, Down 1

May 8, 2020 07:11 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly firm:  CN, +$.01; SN, +$.05; WN, -$.0150; KWN, -$.0125.  Dely: SBM, 0; BO, 56; RR, 50; C, 0; HRW, 0

·       What caught my eye: Confirmation of both old and new crop corn sales to China was the big news item of yesterday.  Trade ideas seem to think China will eventually buy 3-4 MMT of corn from the U.S. for 20-21 and perhaps another 1 MMT for this year

·       All the major global equity markets are higher this morning .  Asia: Higher-- Nikkei, +2.56%; Shanghai, +0.83%; Hang Seng, +1.04%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.94%; FTSE, +1.40%; CAC, +0.97%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Up--DOW, +263; S&P, +32.75; NAS, +93.5.   EXTERNALS: June crude, +$0.72 @ $24.27Gold: +$6.80 $1,733; Sep $ Index, -0.181 @ 99.76

·       T-storm Weather®: hard frosts & freezes occur within northern & eastern areas of the Corn Belt & Plains through Sunday morning.  A milder period starts Monday in OK & TX, triggering some thunderstorms.  Warmer & muggier air then spread northward as next week progresses, causing thunderstorms to frequently erupt & turn much of the central U.S. wet over May 11-20, especially in the Corn Belt, Delta, & central & southern Plains, including some key corn, soybean, HRW wheat, & SRW wheat areas

  • CN, up $.01 @ $3.19; CU, up $.01 @ $3.2425.  The funds bought 5 K on Thursday China was in for both old and new crop corn         
  • SN, up $.05 @ $8.4925; SQ, up $.0475 @ $8.4975.  Funds bot 5 K SB, 0 K SBM, 4 K SBO.  Board crush: $0.78 (N/N), -8; LY, $1.14
  • WN, dn $.0150 @ $5.21; WU, dn $.02 @ $5.2350.  The funds bought 4 K yesterday, freeze worries            

CORN/SORGHUM

·  &​nbsp;    T-storm Weather®: for corn, unseasonable coolness continues through Tue. as highs hold in the 50s-60s & lows dip to the 30s-40s, including freezes in: 1) the Dakotas & MN Fri. & Sun., & 2) IN, MI, OH, WI, & the northeast half of IL Sat.

·       U.S. corn export sales of 30.5 mbu for 19/20 delivery for week ending April 30 were down 43% from last week and 36% versus the 4-week avg.  However, unshipped export sales of 528 mbu are up 30% versus 407 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, mainly dry weather continues on corn until scattered thunderstorms affect southern areas Tue.-Wed. and produce 0.75” to 1.50”, as a slow-moving cool front passes

·       Consultant: in Argentina, corn yields should continue to decline as the harvest moves into the later planted corn

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      &nbs​p;T-storm Weather®: for beans, unseasonable coolness continues through Tue. as highs hold in 50s-60s & lows dip to the 30s-40s, including freezes in: 1) the Dakotas & MN Fri. & Sun., & 2) IN, MI, OH, WI, & the northeast half of IL Sat.

·       U.S. soybean export sales of 24.0 mbu for 19/20 delivery for week ending April 30 were down 39% from last week but up 19% versus the 4-week avg.  Unshipped export sales of 203 mbu are down 54% versus 445 mbu last year

·       Unshipped 19/20 U.S. HRW wheat export sales for the week ending April 30 were 52 mbu, down 28% vs. last year

·       T-storm Weather®: For U.S. HRW wheat, several days of very cool and dry weather develop starting today, but minimums stay above freezing on headed wheat

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLM20, +$0.72 @ $24.27EBN, +$0.41 @ $29.87; EBN-QCLN, -$0.37; RBM, -.0002; NGM, -.015; HOM, +.0154

·       Chicago ethanol was $.03875 firmer at $1.08625/gallon; basis, higher:  NYC, +$.01625 @ +$.07875; Gulf, +$.01125 @ $.08375; Dallas, +$.00125 @ +$.10375; Tampa, +$.00125 @ +$.21375; LA, +$.00625 @ +$.21875

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/down: 2018’s, +0.25 @ 24-25 ½; 2019’s, +.625 @ 33 ¼ -34; 2020’s: +.8750 @ 36 ¾ -38 ½                                                    &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​       

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol inverse lost $.0285 yesterday to close at $.1496/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &nbs​p;                        

  • Choice boxed beef was up $9.36 on Thursday to $458.54, and is $90.98 higher compared to last week
  • Scattered cash cattle trade developed on Thu. in the North at mostly steady money, while the South was dead quiet
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.53 on Thu. to $115.61, & is $16.58 higher vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $3.84 on Thu. to $66.22.  May futures were $0.700 higher and are $2.58 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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