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TRENDS Mostly firm CN, Up 2, SN, Up 1, WN, Up 6

June 4, 2020 06:59 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly firm:  CN, +$.0175; SN, steady; WN, +$.0525; KWN, +$.06

·       What caught my eye: Although down 1.5% from the previous week, China’s soybean crush for the week ending May 29th came in at 2.066 MMT, a record for that period.  YTD crush after 35 weeks is down just 1.3%. USDA expected a 1.8% annual expansion

·       Stocks pause: awaiting EU monetary policy; U.S trade and unemployment data.  Asia: Mostly firm-- Nikkei, +0.36%; Shanghai, -0.14%; Hang Seng, +0.17%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.77%; FTSE, -0.40%; CAC, -0.68%.  WALL STREET: Futures, lower--DOW, -128; S&P, -15.5 NAS, -19.5.   EXTERNALS: July crude, -$0.57 @ $36.72Gold: +$8.10 $1,713; Sep $ Index, +0.254 @ 97.485

·       T-storm Weather®: a weak cool front & its remnant trigger scattered thunderstorms in the Corn Belt & Delta through Fri.  Better rainfall follows this weekend and/or early next week in the Dakotas & northwest Corn Belt, while independently, at least some rain affects parts of the Delta around Mon. after Cristobal makes landfall as a weak tropical system near Louisiana.  Cristobal likely rides the cold front northward into parts of the Corn Belt, also generating additional rainfall early next week

  • CN, up $.0175 @ $3.2575; CU, up $.0125 @ $3.2975.  The funds ended the trading session even in corn                   
  • SN, unch @ $8.5750; SQ, dn $.0025 @ $8.5875.  Funds: bot 5 SB, 3 SBM, sold 1 SBO.  Board crush: $0.79 (N/N), -2; LY, $1.27
  • WN, up $.0525 @ $5.1725; WU, up $.05 @ $5.2075.  Fund buying at mid-week totaled 4 K        

CORN/SORGHUM

· ​      Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 16-35 for 19/20 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: substantial rainfall of 0.50”-1.00” over June 8-10 affects much of the Dakotas and northwest U.S. Corn Belt, while 1.00” to 2.00” falls in the Delta, and a swath between stays between highest and lowest rain chances

·       Ethanol grind: total of 765,000 barrels/day for the week ending May 29—up 41 thousand versus last week but down 26.7% compared to last year’s 1,057,000

·       T-storm Weather®: periods of rain begin Thu.-Fri. in southern corn in Brazil & continue every few days producing 2.00”-4.00”in Mato Grosso do Sul & Paraná over the next two weeks, ultimately slowing harvest through mid-month

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ​Export Sales report.  Trade expects 18-37 mbu for 19/20 soybeans; soymeal, 200-600 K MT; soyoil, 8-40 

·       T-storm Weather®: substantial rainfall of 0.50”-1.00” over June 8-10 affects much of the Dakotas and northwest U.S. Corn Belt, while 1.00” to 2.00” falls in the Delta, and a swath between stays between highest and lowest rain chances

·       November 2020 soybean futures on Wed. closed at $8.66 ¼—highest settlement price for the contract since April 14

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 2-9 mbu for 19/20 all wheat and 4-22 mbu for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: periods of rain affect a wide area of the E.U. through mid-month as a series of storm generate rain, easing dryness for wheat in France, Germany, and the U.K., and turning much of the eastern E.U. wetter

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLN20, -$0.57 @ $37.62EBQ, -$0.45 $39.33EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.09; RBN, +.0002; NGN, +.013; HON, -.0043

·       Chicago ethanol again gained $.0150, rising to $1.2125/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, steady @ +$.0575; Gulf, -$.0025 @ $.0925; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +$.0975; Tampa, +$.0050 @ +$.1975; LA, steady @ +$.2275

·       Ethanol RIN values, lower: 2019’s, -3.00 @ 46 ½ - 48 ½; 2020’s: -3.00 @ 47 ½ -49 ½                            ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;            

·   &n​bsp;   The July RBOB/July ethanol inverse shed $.0140 Wednesday as it narrowed to $.0277/gallon, premium ethanol  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 ​;      

    <​li> Choice boxed beef declined $22.83 on Wednesday to $295.90, and is $81.87 lower versus a week ago
  • Light cash cattle trade occurred on Wed., with Southern cattle at $117—mostly steady with last week's weighted avg.
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $0.64 on Wed. to $74.28, and is down $13.48 compared to last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index fell $2.17 on Wed. to $57.06.  June futures were $3.750 lower and are $8.410 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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