HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly firm: CN, -$.01; SN, +$.0350; WN, +$.04; KWN, +$.06

·       What caught my eye: ABARES sees a sizable increase in the Australian wheat crop, revising their latest estimate up by 5.4 MMT to 26.7 million for a whopping year to year gain of 11.5 million/75+%

·       Markets taking a “pause”, awaiting direction from the Fed.  Asia: Mostly lower-- Nikkei, +0.15%; Shanghai, -0.42%; Hang Seng, +0.03%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.08%; FTSE, -0.58%; CAC, -0.79%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Mostly down--DOW, -120; S&P, -9; NAS, +16.25.   EXTERNALS: July crude, -$1.07 @ $37.88; Gold: +$2.70 @ $1,725; Sep $ Index, -0.091 @ 96.180

·       T-storm Weather®: areas of rain and thunderstorms continue in the central / northern Plains and Corn Belt today as Tropical Depression Cristobal and a strong cold front pass.  Mainly dry and cool weather follow for five days, followed by sharp warming in the Plains this weekend, and elsewhere early next week.  Unlike warm-ups earlier this year, substantial rainfall is not expected next week as low humidities limit thunderstorm coverage and amounts

• CN, dn $.01@ $3.2650; CU, dn $.0075 @ $3.3225.  Favorable weather, improving ratings generated 10 K in Fund selling                     
• SN, up $.0350 @ $8.6675; SQ, up $.0250 @ $8.6850.  Funds: sold 3 SB, 2 SBM, bot 2 SBO.  Board crush: $0.79 (N/N), 0; LY, $1.30
• WN, up $.04 @ $5.0850; WU, up $.0350 @ $5.1425.  Funds sold 6 K, larger Australian crop and rain in the EU          

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: below-normal rainfall is more probable than near- or above-normal totals starting June 18-19 across the U.S. Corn Belt, with best rains in northern and eastern areas, and lowest chances south

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is unchanged this week at 96.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: periods of rain affect far southern Brazil over the next two weeks, but sharply drier weather to the immediate north and south essentially leaves second-crop corn with mixed to favorable weather for harvesting

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: below-normal rainfall is more probable than near- or above-normal totals starting June 18-19 across the U.S. Corn Belt, with best rains in northern and eastern areas, and lowest chances south

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch this week at 50.0 MMT; neutral to slightly lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is increased to 15-20 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: numerous rains over the next 10 to 14 days ease dryness for winter wheat in the western E.U. and keep the eastern E.U. moist within a mild period

ENERGY

·       Down: CLN20, -$1.07 @ $37.88; EBQ, -$0.90 @ $40.28; EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.14; RBN, -.0085; NGN, -.040; HON, -.0132

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.7 (+8.4); Gasoline, +0.1 (-2.9); Distillates, +3.0 (+4.3).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.811 mbpd (range: 0.796-0.842).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.255 mb (range 22.000-22.500)

·       Chicago ethanol edged higher again, +$.0045 to $1.27; basis, mostly firm:  NYC, +$.0260 @ +$.08550; Gulf, -$.0020 @ +$.10; Dallas, +$.0155 @ +$.13; Tampa, +$.0355 @ +$.24; LA, +$.0155 @ +$.2250

·       Ethanol RIN values, firm: 2019’s, +1.50 @ 43 ½ - 45 ½; 2020’s: +2.25 @ 45 ½ -47 ½                                     &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;    

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol inverse narrowed $.0203 to $.0297/gallon, premium ethanol  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nb​sp;                   

• Choice boxed beef was $7.58 lower on Tuesday at $247.00, and is down $71.73 versus last week 
• Since May 12, choice boxed beef values have plummeted $228.39 (48.0%), & are at their lowest level since April 17
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.41 on Tue. to $68.44, and is down $5.20 vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index was $0.16 lower on Tue. at $51.77.  June futures eased $0.500 and are $3.695 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®