HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly Firm:  CK, +$.0050; SK, +$.01; WK, -$.07; KWK, +$.0050

·       What caught my eye: Aggressive producer selling has resulted in Brazil’s soybean exports through the 1^st 16 working days of April on pace to export a record 16.5 MMT (600 mbu) for the month.  Previous high was 12.4 million in May of 2018.

·       Futures are higher, awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s afternoon comments. Asia: Firm-- Nikkei, clsoed; Shanghai, +0.44%; Hang Seng, +0.28%; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.33%; FTSE, +0.84%; CAC, -0.13%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Higher--DOW, +136; S&P, +19.75; NAS, +79.5.   EXTERNALS: June crude, +$1.59 @ $13.93; Gold: -$2.80 @ $1,719; Sep $ Index, -0.079 @ 99.865

·       T-storm Weather®: widespread showers accompanied by cool temps develop today across the southeast two-thirds of the Corn Belt and Delta.  Several days of drying follow / continue in the central U.S. over Thu.-Sat.  Two systems then slide from the central Plains through the southern Corn Belt and Delta within Sun.-Wed. (May 3-6), producing 0.50" to 1.50" totals with wettest weather in the southern Corn Belt and Delta

• CK, up $.0050 @ $3.0325; CN, up $.0050 @ $3.1250.  Fund selling on Tuesday totaled 4 K   
• SK, up $.01 @ $8.27; SN, unch @ $8.32.  Funds sold 5 K SB, 4 K SBM, bot 4 K SBO. Board crush: $0.72 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.13
• WK, dn $.07 @ $5.1975; WN, dn $.0550 @ $5.2050.  The funds bought 3 K yesterday       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: corn planting is probable to occur at an uneven pace this week as more rain in Corn Belt & Delta is accompanied by fairly dry & mild weather in Plains; pockets of rain & thunderstorms develop in all areas next week

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop est. is unchanged this week at 49.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, most second-crop corn stays dry through at least May 4.  A round of thunderstorms follows within May 5-7 in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná when a cool front passes, producing 0.50” to 1.00”

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-s​torm Weather®: bean planting is probable to occur at an uneven pace this week as more rain in Corn Belt & Delta is accompanied by fairly dry & mild weather in Plains; pockets of rain & thunderstorms develop in all areas next week

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is steady this week at 121.0 MMT; neutral to slightly lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports remains at 15-20 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: some thunderstorms affect HRW wheat in CO, KS, NE Sat. night & Sun. (0.20”-0.40”); a stronger system develops May 4-5 for most HRW wheat in the Plains over Mon.-Tue., except possibly OK & TX (0.25”-0.75”)

ENERGY

·       ​Firm: CLM20, +$1.59 @ $13.93; EBM, +$1.04 @ $21.50; EBM-QCLM, -$0.55; RBM, +.0262; NGM, +.005; HOM, +.0158

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +10.6 (+10.0); Gasoline, +2.5 (-1.1); Distillates, +3.6 (+5.5).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.547 mbpd (range: 0.500-0.610).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 27.644 mb (range 27.289-27.989)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0090 firmer at $.9270/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.0015 @ $.0455; Gulf, -$.0090 @ $.0630; Dallas, +$.0185 @ +$.1105; Tampa, -$.0040 @ +$.2030; LA, +$.0185 @ +$.14050

·       Ethanol RINs values, firm. 2018’s, +1.00 @ 21 -22 ½; 2019’s, +1.00 @ 27 ½ -29 ½; 2020’s: +4.00 @ 35 ½ -37                               &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                                                 ​; 

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread gave up $.0429 on Tuesday to settle at $.2438/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &nbs​p;                      

• Choice boxed beef was $18.98 higher on Tuesday at $330.82, and is up $70.97 versus a week ago
• A light round of cash cattle trade occurred on Tue. in Nebraska at $150, $4.00 lower than last week's weighted avg.
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $4.66 on Tue. to $87.35, & is up $18.35 compared to last week
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.74 on Tue. to $49.72.  May futures declined $1.225 but are $5.33 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®