Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly firm:  CK, +$.0125; SK, -$.0025; WK, +$.0275; KWK, +$.0550

·       What caught my eye: Soybean/corn (SX/CZ) ratio at 2.51:1 is the 3^rd highest in the past 21 years.  Will this generate more of a 50-50 split between corn and bean acres, versus the average 53%/47% during that same time period?

·       U.S. futures higher despite a sharp dive in retail sales/manufacturing output.  Asia: Mostly Lower-- Nikkei, -1.33%; Shanghai, +0.31%; Hang Seng, -0.58%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.91%; FTSE, +0.07%; CAC, +0.65%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Firmer--DOW, +109; S&P, +15; NAS, +84.   EXTERNALS: May crude, +$0.40 @ $20.27; Gold: +$15.90 @ $1,756; Sep $ Index, +0.514 @ 99.965

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., moderate rain and snow affect Nebraska and southeast half of the Corn Belt today-Fri.  Coldness breaks in all areas this weekend and does not immediately return.  The milder period sets the stage for one or two moderate to large systems to pass in one to two weeks, producing rain and thunderstorms – especially in the Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt where heavy totals are probable starting around next Wed. (Apr. 22), then across a wider area later in the period

• CK, up $.0125 @ $3.2050; CN, up $.0050 @ $3.2725.  More fund selling with another 10 K at midweek      
• SK, dn $.0025 @ $8.4175; SN, unch @ $8.5175.  Funds: sold 6 SB, 4 SBO, bot 4 SBM.  Board crush: $0.93 (K/K), +13; LY, $1.02
• WK, up $.0275 @ $5.43; WN, up $.0175 @ $5.4225.  The funds sold 7 K                                     &n​bsp;    

CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending April 9; trade expects 24-47 mbu for 2019/20 corn sales

·       Consultant: the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) is forecasting drier than normal weather for most of south-central and southern Brazil safrinha (double crop) corn during the period of April-May-June

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, no rain in southern corn areas contrasts with scattered precip in the north over the next week.  All areas then likely stay or turn drier as high pressure forms and the dry season attempts to begin in the north

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 570,000 barrels/day for week ending April 10, dn 15.2% v. prior week & down 43.9% v. 2019

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending April 9; trade expects 11-22 mbu for 2019/20 soybean sales; 100-250 for 19/20 soymeal; and 8-35 for 19/20 soyoil

·       Consultant: wet weather has slowed the soybean harvest in northeastern Brazil, but the dry weather allowed farmers to make good progress harvesting soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, dry weather prevails over the next week, allowing soybean harvest to race forward

·       Export Sales report for week end April 9; trade expects 6-13 mbu for 2019/20 wheat sales & 4-11 mbu for 2020/21

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., an active pattern develops from Apr. 22 forward as one or two large systems pass within a milder spring-time air mass; as a result, some rain is likely on drying HRW wheat later next week or weekend

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLK20, +$0.40 @ $20.27; EBM, +$0.86 @ $28.55; EBM-QCLM, +0.14; RBK, +.0324; NGK, +.009; HOK, +.0258

·   &nb​sp;   Chicago ethanol off $.0015 at $.9200/gallon; basis, firmer:  NYC, +$.0040 @ $.0325; Gulf, +$.0065 @ $.09; Dallas, +$.0040 @ +$.0450; Tampa, +$.0065 @ +$.1400; LA, +$.0265 @ +$.1050

·       Ethanol RINs values, weaker; 2018’s, -2.00 @ 24 -25; 2019’s, -2.00 @ 28-29; 2020’s: -3.00 @ 37-38                               ​;                                                  ​;                        ​                      ​

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol inverse eased $.0004 Wednesday to -$.2266/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &​nbsp;                    <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef was $3.86 higher on Wed. at $230.53, and is up $8.19 compared to last week
• Wednesday represented the first week-to-week gain in choice boxed beef values since March 26
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.33 on Wed. to $51.16, but is still up 48-cents vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.96 on Wed. to $46.53.  May futures gained $1.450 but are still $7.08 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®