HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Mostly firm:  CH, +$.0150; SH, +$.0075; WH, -$.0175; KWH, -$.0025 

·      What caught my eye: Unshipped SB sales to China at 10-yr seasonal low; record S AM supplies means China BUYS MORE from Arg/Brzl; to reach what we think is a realist 19/20 export forecast, China would have to take 2^nd largest amount ever (LY) U.S. SB

·      Weak EU data & demand growth worries escalate.  Asia: Mostly lower: Nikkei, -0.19%; Shanghai, +0.33%; Hang Seng, -0.33%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -0.61%; FTSE, -0.68%; CAC, -0.26%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down—DOW, -160; S&P, -16.75; NAS, -56.25  EXTERNALS: March crude, -$0.23 @ $50.72; Gold: +$2.90 @ $1,573; Mar $ Index, +.109 @ 98.490

• T-storm Weather®: some thunderstorms dot Argentina into Sat., but well-organized rain is not expected in most areas (though new thunderstorms are probable in ~10 days when the next system passes).  Conversely, well-organized rain affects central & northern Brazil over the next week, followed by less-frequent rains for harvesting & planting.  Southern Brazil remains between coolest & wettest weather, leaving most areas seasonable but drier than normal despite some rain Sun.-Mon. in Paraná
• CH, up $.0.0150 @ $3.8075; CK, up $.01 @ $3.8550.  Funds sell 2 K on Thursday    
• SH, up $.0075 @ $8.8175; SK, up $.0050 @ $8.9525.  Funds: Bot 1 SB; 2 SBM & even SBO.  Board crush: $0.97, 0; LY, $0.98,-
• WH, dn $.0175 @ $5.5450; WK, dn $.0175 @ $5.5175.  The funds sold 5 K yesterday         

   CORN/SORGHUM

·      <​em>ATI Research: Ukraine Ag attaché is forecasting Ukraine 2019/20 corn exports at 28.1 MMT compared to the latest USDA forecast of 30.5 MMT.  This has the potential of adding 75-90 mbu to the 2019/20 U.S. corn export total

·      T-storm Weather: in central/northern Brazil, a cool front dissipates next 5-7 days, triggering scattered thunderstorms each day and resulting in heavy rainfall of 3.00” to 5.00”; safrinha (double crop) corn planting slows as a result

·      Consultant: the range on Argentina 2019/20 corn production is 45.0-49.5 MMT, with the current estimate pegged at 47.5 MMT

·      Through Feb. 6, the average projected crop insurance price for December 2020 corn futures is $3.9113

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Consultant: earliest planted soybeans in Argentina are entering the reproductive phase, while the latest planted beans are in vegetative development.  Soil moisture is generally adequate & the near-term forecast is not threatening

·      T-storm Weather: in central/northern Brazil, heavy rain the next 5-7 days (3.00” to 5.00”) slows soybean harvesting

·      ATI Research: Ukraine Ag attaché is forecasting Ukraine 2019/20 wheat exports at 19.0 MMT compared to the latest USDA forecast of 20.5 MMT.  This has the potential of adding 40-50 mbu to U.S. wheat exports over March-August

·      T-storm Weather: substantial rains and snows continue to rapidly ease dryness across winter wheat in the E.U., Russia, and Ukraine, marking an end to agricultural (90-day) drought

ENERGY

·      Down: CLH20, -$0.23 @ $50.72; EBJ, -$0.31 @ $54.95; EBJ-QCLJ, -.05; RBH, +.0043; NGH, -.008; HOH, -.0049

·      Chicago ethanol was $.01125 weaker Thursday; basis values versus Chicago were mixed:  NYC, -$.00875 @ $.09375; Gulf, -$.00375 @ $.11875; Dallas, +$.00625 @ +$.08875; Tampa, +$.00625 @ +$.18375; LA, +$.01125 @ +$.21875

·      Ethanol RINs values, UP: 2018’s, +2.25 @ 19 -20; 2019’s, +2.25 @ 19 -22; 2020’s, +1.500 @ 24 -27                          &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                    ​

·      The March RBOB/March ethanol spread widened $.0317 Thursday to $.1650/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           ​;              ​               ​

• Choice boxed beef firmed 21-cents on Thursday to $210.93 but is still down $2.42 compared to last week

·      USDA: export sales of beef in the week ending Jan. 30 were 18,700 MT; primary buyers were Japan and South Korea

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 26-cents on Thu. to $63.89 & is down $5.63 versus a week ago  

·      CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.52 on Thu. to $60.45.  February futures firmed $0.600 but are $2.750 below the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®