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TRENDS Mostly firm CH, Up 1, SF, Up 5, WH, Up 3

December 4, 2019 07:03 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly firm: CH, -$.0025; SF, +$.05; WH, +$0.0150; KWH, +$.0250.  Del’y: SBM, 319; SBO, 658; C, 129; HRW, 11; O, 10

·       What caught my eye:  Brazil SB production/trade data suggests end of November SB stocks are down nearly 50% year to year at 8  MMT, a 9-year low and suggests Dec-Jan exports of 2 MMT, or less than 1/3rd of LY

·       Market doubts Trump really wants to delay trade deal. ASIA: Lower—Nikkei, -1.05%; Shanghai, -0.23%; Hang Seng, -1.25%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +1.10%; FTSE, +0.20%; CAC, +1.33%.  WALL STREET—Futures, up—DOW, +148; S&P, +14.75; NAS, +52.50.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$0.90 $56.93; Gold: -$3.20 $1,481; $ Index, -.001 @ 97.736

·       T-storm Weather®: mainly dry weather occurs in Argentina over the next week, but some rain develops Dec. 11-17.  In Brazil, rain affects a wide area next 5 days, followed by a continuation of rain central & north, & a return of thunderstorms in southern areas in 10-14 days, limiting dryness concerns.  In the U.S., dry & mild weather over the next week will be followed by a colder period with some rains & snows on unharvested corn in MI & WI, but less-so in ND (though extensive snowpack lingers going forward)

  • CH, dn $.0025 @ $3.81; CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.9150.  The funds were estimated to be even in Tuesday trading 
  • SF, up $.05 @ $8.76; SH, up $.0525 @ $8.9075.  Funds: Even SB, SBM & SBO not available.  Board Crush: $1.02, +42 LY, $1.00
  • WH, up $.0150 @ $5.2675; WK, up $.0125 @ $5.31.  The funds sold 6 K yesterday                 

CORN/SORGHUM

  • T-storm Weather®: mild U.S. temps this week will be less acute with northward & eastward extent.  Thus, much of ND remains snow-covered for corn harvest, while southern areas of MI & WI stay (or turn) snow-free the next few days

·       Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 corn crop est. is unchanged this week at 49.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward

·       ATI Research: since 2000/01, when U.S. Sep-Nov corn exports have been less than 19% of the USDA November annual est (13% this year), the final total was below the forecast 4 of 5 times; the reduction in those years averaged 113 mbu  

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·     &n​bsp; Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is unchanged this week at 54.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  Soybean planting is pegged at 39.0% as of late last week, which is 1.7% slower than last year

  • T-storm Weather®: rain occurs in central & northern Brazil over the next 2 weeks in varying areas each day, producing 3.00”-5.00” vs. normal of 3.50”-4.50”.  Thus, topsoil & subsoil moisture stabilize or improve for soybean development
  • ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is 13-19 mbu per week

·       Australian Department of Agriculture this week lowered its wheat crop est. to 15.85 MMT (USDA currently at 17.2)

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLG20, +$0.90 $56.93; EBG, +$1.17 @ $61.99; EBG-QCLG+.270; RBG, +.0281; NGG, -.045; HOG, +.0305

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.7 (-3.7); Gasoline, +1.8 (+2.9); Distillates, +1.1 (+0.8).  Ethanol production, 1.054 mbpd (range: 1.041-1.067); stocks, + 451 K barrels to 20.728 (range: 20.477-21.027)

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.0470 @ $1.4880; basis values versus Chicago were firmer:  NYC, +$.01450 @ $.0870; Gulf, +$.0420 @ $.0920; Dallas, +$.012 @ +$.0870; Tampa, +$.0270 @ +$.2020; LA, +$.032 @ +$.2320

·       Ethanol RINs values were mixed: 2018’s, +.50 @ 6 ¼ -6 ¾; 2019’s, -.1250 @ 12 ½ -12 ¾; 2020’s,-.1250 @ 20 ¼ -20 ½                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;        

·       The January RBOB/December ethanol spread was again narrower, in $.0104 to $.0939      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &​nbsp;                       <​/wbr>

  • Choice boxed beef was $2.49 lower on Tuesday at $230.15 and is down $1.69 compared to last week 
  • Cash cattle trade has yet to develop this week, with asking prices of $122 in the South & $193 plus in the North

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.45 on Tuesday to $80.01 and is $1.15 lower versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.03 on Tue. to $57.38.  December futures gained $2.150 & are $5.120 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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