HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0225; SX, steady; WZ, unch; KWZ, +$.0225.  Del’ys: None 

·       What caught my eye: Yesterday . . . so much for harvest pressure.  Seemingly a demand AND supply led rally as Unknown was back for more U.S. soybeans and weather-related planting delays in Brazil could eventually impact BOTH soybean & safrinha corn

·       Let’s rethink that idea of halting stimulus talks until the post election results are in . . .fasten seat belts 

• Asia:  Mixed-- Nikkei, -0.05%; Shanghai, holiday; Hang Seng, +1.09%
• EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.34%; FTSE, -0.07%; CAC, -0.18%
• WALL STREET: Higher?-–DOW futures, +163; S&P, +17.25; NAS, +50.25
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$1.00 @ $39.67; Gold: -$16.70 @ $1,892; Mar $ Index, +0.026 @ 93.745
• T-storm Weather®: Corn and soybean harvest prospects stay favorable for most U.S. production areas over the next 10 days, as rainfall remains limited as upper-level high pressure to the west continues to block storm systems from passing.  Temperatures will be sharply warmer than normal over the next week by +10°F to +15°F, with maximums in the 70s-80s and minimums in the 40s-50s across a wide area
• CZ, up $.0225 @ $3.8725; CH, up $.02 @ $3.9625.  Heavy fund buying yesterday at 15 K—export demand/global supply issues        
• SX, unch @ $10.44; SF, dn $.0025 @ $10.4525. Funds: bot 15 SB; bot 6 SBO, 12 SBM. Board crush: $1.02 (V/X), +.06; LY, $0.80
• WZ, unch@ $5.9275; WH, unch @ $5.9825.  Russian weather—funds buy 8 K                      

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Oct. 9 USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn crop is 14.823 bbu versus 14.900 in September

·       Oct. 9 USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. corn carryout, 2.120 bbu vs. 2.503 in September

·       T-storm Weather®: Rainfall of 0.20”-0.40” impacts the northwest U.S. Corn Belt Oct. 12-13 when a cool front passes.   A cooler period begins after the front passes, but temperatures do not turn cool and instead only return to normal

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports remains in the 30 to 35 mbu per week range

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Oct. 9 USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. soybean crop is 4.288 bbu versus 4.313 in September

·       Oct. 9 USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.363 bbu vs. 0.460 in September

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is increased to a range of 83 to 97 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: Dry and mild upper-level high pressure maintains drought in winter wheat areas of Russia

·       Oct. 9 USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. wheat carryout, 0.890 bbu vs. 0.925 in September  

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLX20, -$1.00 @ $39.67; EBZ, -$0.73 @ $41.92; EBZ-QCLX, +0.26; RBX, -.0319; NGX, +.007; HOX, -.0253

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -0.1 (+1.0); Gasoline -0.1 (-0.9); Distillates -1.1 (-1.0).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.895 mbpd (range: 0.885-0.915).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 19.649 mb (range: 19.000-20.000)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0105 higher yesterday at $1.4220; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.01550 @ $.0880; Gulf, +.01450 @ +$.1055; Dallas, +$.00950 @ +$.0980; Tampa, -$.0050 @ +$.1880; LA, -$.0050 @ +$.1730

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +1.00 @ 47 ½ -49 ¼; 2020’s: +1.00 @ 48 ½ -52 ¼; 2021, +.875 @ 51 ½ -53 ¼                                            &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is trading $.0348 lower at -$.1997     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &​nbsp;                  <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef eased $0.74 on Tuesday to $216.24, and is $0.92 lower compared to last week 
• Cash cattle trade remained at a standstill on Tuesday, with asking prices pegged at $110 in the South
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.32 on Tue. to $91.36, but is still up $0.13 versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.15 on Tue. to $77.41.  October futures gained $1.575 but are $1.085 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®