HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0175; SX, +$.0825; WZ, -$.0175; KWZ, -$.0125.  Del’ys: Ethanol, 15 

·       What caught my eye: SB sales/shipments to non-Chinese destinations are off to a somewhat sluggish start with the latter so far down almost 30%/32 mbu year to year.  However, YTD sales excluding Unknown are nearly flat versus 19-20

·       Equities remain skiddish over the state of Trump’s health, in spite of his return to the White House

• Asia:  Firmer-- Nikkei, +0.52%; Shanghai, holiday; Hang Seng, +0.90%
• EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, -0.02%; FTSE, -0.35%; CAC, +0.11%
• WALL STREET: A bit weaker-–DOW futures, +2; S&P, -6.75; NAS, -46.5
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, +$0.38 @ $39.60; Gold: -$1.70 @ $1,918; Mar $ Index, -0.005 @ 93.525
• T-storm Weather®: Rainfall remains limited across the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days as upper-level high pressure to the west continues to block storm systems from passing.  Temperatures fluctuate over the few days as warm fronts and cool fronts pass, but will generally be much milder than normal over the next 10 days with maximums in the 60s-70s-80s and minimums in the 40s-50s; mildest in HRW wheat areas of the Plains
• CZ, up $.0175 @ $3.8125; CH, up $.0150 @ $3.9075.  The funds were estimated to be even in Monday’s trading session        
• SX, up $.0825 @ $10.2975; SF, up $.08 @ $10.33. Funds: even SB; bot 6 SBO, sold 6 SBM. Board crush: $0.96 (V/X), -.03; LY, $0.80
• WZ, dn $.0175 @ $5.8250; WH, dn $.0175 @ $5.8850.  Dry weather worries in the Black Sea encouraged the funds to buy 8 K                       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings at 62% vs. 61% last week and 56% last year.  Corn mature as of Oct. 4 was 87% vs. 54% last year & 5-year avg. of 78%; corn harvested is pegged at 25% vs. 14% last year & the avg. of 24% 

·       T-storm Weather®:  A cold front breaks mildness Oct. 13-14 across the U.S. Corn Belt, but only reverts temps to near-normal levels.  Rainfall accompanies the cold front, with highest totals of 0.20” to 0.50” in central and eastern areas

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 2.122 bbu compared to the Sep. USDA forecast of 2.503 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: 86% of expected first-corn production in Brazil had less than half normal rain over the last 30 days

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA pegs Good/Excellent soybean crop ratings at 64%, unch vs. last week but above 53% last year.  Dropping leaves as of Oct. 4 was 85% vs. 67% last year & the avg. of 82%; soybeans harvested: 38% vs. 12% last year & the avg. of 28% 

·       T-storm Weather®: hot and dry conditions dominate central/northern Brazil soybean areas through at least Sat. 

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 0.300 bbu compared to Sep. USDA forecast of 0.460 bbu

·       U.S.  winter wheat planting: 52% v. 48% last year & avg. of 47%; emergence: 24% v. 22% last year & 21% for the avg.

·       ATI Research: U.S. HRS ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 0.288 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.293 bbu

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLX20, +$0.38 @ $39.60; EBZ, +$0.40 @ $41.69; EBZ-QCLX, -0.01; RBX, +.0129; NGX, +.049; HOX, +.0156

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.01150 on Monday to $1.4115; basis, weaker: NYC, -$.01650 @ $.1035; Gulf, -.0090 @ +$.0910; Dallas, -$.00650 @ +$.0885; Tampa, -$.001650 @ +$.1885; LA, -$.01150 @ +$.1735

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +.625 @ 47 1/8 –47 5/8; 2020’s: +.625 @ 48-48 ¾; 2021, +.50 @ 50 ¾ -52 ¼                                   &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​         

·     &nbs​p; The Dec RBOB/Nov ethanol spread is trading $.0003 lower at -$.1793 this morning     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                     ​