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TRENDS Mixed CZ, up 2, SX, unchanged, WZ, up 5

September 10, 2020 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, unch; SX, -$.0450; WZ, +$.0350; KWU, +$.0525.  Del: SBM, 30; SBO, 1; Corn, 2; SB, 1; SRW, 9

·       What caught my eye: USDA has Brazil domestic corn use flat for 20/21; some think it could be up 5-6 MMT;  one closely followed consulting group pegs China’s 20-21 corn imports at 17 MMT, 10 more than USDA.  Friday should be interesting on several fronts

·       Market will be focusing on U.S jobless claims, out at 8:30 a.m. EDT

  • Asia—Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, +0.88%; Shanghai, -0.61%; Hang Seng, -0.64%
  • EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +0.40%; FTSE, -0.41%; CAC, -0.02%
  • WALL STREET: Futures are mostly weaker --DOW, -29; S&P, -2; NAS, +11
  • EXTERNALS: Oct crude, -$0.57 @ $37.45Gold: +$2.10 $1,957; Sep $ Index, -.208 @ 93.050
  • T-storm Weather®: another frost affects the western Plains and Dakotas today, before a much milder period begins.  Rains continue into Friday in the central and southern Plains as a large system slowly passes, then end.  Showers also affect the northwest half of the Corn Belt into Friday as unseasonable coolness lingers, followed by organized rain in / near IA Fri.-Sat. when the main system passes, after which a fairly dry and mild period dominates most corn and soybeans for at least five to seven days
  • CZ, unch @ $3.6025; CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.7025.  The funds sold 2 K yesterday           
  • SX, dn $.0450 @ $9.7425; SF, dn $.0425 @ $9.79.  Funds bot 4 SB, 6 K SBM, sold 3 SBO. Board crush: $0.72 (V/X), -2; LY, $0.87
  • WX, up $.0350 @ $5.4725; WH, up $.03 @ $5.56.  Fund activity on Wednesday was said to have been net even           

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: some rains likely affect the central U.S. in 10 to 14 days, but a sudden change to chilly and / or wet weather that would significantly slow or stop corn harvesting is not expected

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports remains in the 35 to 45 mbu per week range

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 10:00 am CDT

·       T-storm Weather®: mainly dry and very mild weather over the next 10 days affects maturing corn in Ukraine & Russia

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: some rains likely affect the central U.S. in 10 to 14 days, but a sudden change to chilly and / or wet weather that would significantly slow or stop soybean harvesting is not expected

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports remains in the 35 to 45 mbu per week range

·       T-storm Weather®: drier than normal weather near-term impacts wheat in Australia & Argentina, despite some rain

·       ATI Research: near-term exports of U.S. wheat are projected to continue to range from 16-20 mbu per week

ENERGY

·       Weaker:  CLV20, -$0.57 @ $37.45; EBX, -$0.47 $40.32EBX-QCLV, +0.11; RBV, -.0057; NGV, -.012; HOV, -.0223

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -1.2 (+3.0); Gasoline -1.9 (-6.9); Distillates -0.31 (+2.3).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.927 mbpd (range: 0.900-0.940).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 20.898 mb (range: 20.000-21.282)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01775 lower at $1.4145; basis, mostly firmer: NYC, +$.00275 @ +$.11550; Gulf, -.01975 @ +$.0855; Dallas, +$.00275 @ +$.06550; Tampa, +$.00275 @ +$.1605; LA, +$.00275 @ +$.12550

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +1.25 @ 46 – 47; 2020’s: +2.75 @ 48 -52                                                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​        

·       The Oct RBOB/Sept ethanol spread is trading -.2607, $.0100 firmer with the premium to ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &​nbsp;                      <​/wbr>

  • Choice boxed beef declined $1.87 on Wednesday, and is $4.63 lower compared to a week ago
  • Cash cattle trading developed on Wed. in the South at $101, which is $2.00 to $3.00 lower compared to last week
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $1.25 on Wed. to 79.32, but is still up $5.96 versus the previous week 
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $1.39 on Wed. to $61.92.  October futures gained $1.475 but are $0.545 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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