HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0025; SX, -$.01; WZ, +$.09; KWZ, +$.0950.  Del’ys: None 

·       What caught my eye: the long-anticipated slow-down in  Brazil’s SB exports appears to finally be taking place:  the latest SB line-up at 2.2 MMT is down 54% versus a year ago; note that Sep exports of 4.5 MMT were just 130 K less than Sep of 2019 

·       Markets are cautiously optimistic this morning as they monitor the patient’s condition

• Asia:  Firmer-- Nikkei, +1.23%; Shanghai, holiday; Hang Seng, +1.32%
• EUROPE: Firmer—DAX, +0.56%; FTSE, +0.60%; CAC, +0.61%
• WALL STREET: Hgher-–DOW futures, +151; S&P, +18; NAS, +106
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, +$1.51 @ $38.56; Gold: -$3.40 @ $1,904; Mar $ Index, -0.084 @ 93.790
• T-storm Weather®: Rainfall remains limited over the next 10 days across the central U.S. as upper-level high pressure to the west continues to block storm systems from passing; driest weather will be in the Plains where no rain is expected through at least Oct. 12.  Temperatures fluctuate over the next five days as warm fronts and cool fronts pass, leaving the Corn Belt seasonable and the Plains mild with maximums in the 70s-80s
• CZ, up $.0025 @ $3.80; CH, up $.0025 @ $3.8950.  The funds closed out the week by buying 5 K       
• SX, dn $.01 @ $10.1950; SF, dn $.01 @ $10.2375. Funds sold 3 K SB; 6 SBO, bot 5 SBM. Board crush: $0.99 V/X), +.04; LY, $0.83
• WZ, up $.09 @ $5.8225; WH, up $.08 @ $5.8750.  The funds bought 2 K on Friday                      

CORN/SORGHUM

·  ​;     December 2020 corn futures on Fri. closed at $3.79 ¾--the highest Fri. settlement price for the contract since March 6

·       Good/Excellent ratings for U.S. corn in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report are pegged to be steady at 61%, but above last year’s 56%

·       T-storm Weather®: Some rain develops Oct. 13-15. in U.S. Corn Belt, but only light totals (0.20”-0.40”); Plains likely stay dry.  An unseasonably mild period continues into mid-Oct., with temps +5°F to +15°F from normal in central U.S.

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 46.2 mbu needed; 31.8 last week.  Milo—5.2 needed; 2.3 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Crop Progress report: U.S. soybean Good/Excellent ratings pegged at 64%, steady v. last week but above 53% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: Some rain affects soybeans in southern Brazil later this week and weekend.  But upper-level high pressure dominates this week in central & northern Brazil, leaving a wide area dry & hot with high temps in the 100s

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; soybeans, 40.6 mbu needed; 44.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: coverage of 30-day dryness on U.S. HRW wheat production is projected to exceed 90% by Oct. 10

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.2 mbu needed; 20.7 last week

ENERGY

·       Up: CLX20, +$1.51 @ $38.56; EBZ, +$1.32 @ $40.69; EBZ-QCLX, -0.19; RBX, +.0487; NGX, +.087; HOX, +.0340

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01875 lower at $1.40; basis, higher: NYC, +$.00875 @ $.12; Gulf, +.00875 @ +$.10; Dallas, +$.00375 @ +$.0950; Tampa, +$.00375 @ +$.2050; LA, +$.02375 @ +$.1850

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -.25 @ 46 ½ –47; 2020’s: -.25 @ 47 ½-48; 2021, -.25 @ 50 ¼ -51 ¾                           &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        <​wbr>                

​ ·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is trading $.0611 higher at -$.2154 as we start the week    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          ​;             

• Choice boxed beef eased $0.10 on Friday to $218.88, and is $0.46 lower compared to the previous week 
• U.S. beef production was the week ending Oct. 3 was est. at 558.1 million lbs, up 2.1% vs. last week & 5.7% vs. 2019
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $4.79 on Fri. to $91.30, but is still up $0.51 versus last week 
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.07 on Fri. to $76.81.  October futures gained $0.350 but are $2.310 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®