HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CZ, -$.0050; SF, +$.0475; WZ, -$.0275; KWZ, -$.0250.  Del’y:  SB, 14. Dalian: C, -½; SB, +17

·       What caught my eye: A well-followed private consulting entity yesterday put its estimate of the U.S. corn crop 220 below the USDA (yield, -2.7 bpa) and soybeans, 85 mbu smaller with yield dropping 1.1 below the USDA. Latter implies sub-100 carry-out

·       No clear winner in U.S. presidential election, most markets are firmer

• Asia:  Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +1.72%; Shanghai, +0.19%; Hang Seng, -0.21%
• EUROPE: Positive—DAX, +0.07%; FTSE, +0.31%; CAC, +0.38%
• WALL STREET: Mixed–DOW futures, -70; S&P, +10.50; NAS, +211
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$0.95 @ $38.61; Gold: -$19.80 @ $1,891; Mar $ Index, +0.090 @ 93.620
• T-storm Weather®: In Brazil and Argentina, dry weather dominates a wide area over the next week.  A cool front follows and triggers scattered rain within a wide area of Brazil next Nov. 10-13; the most likely scenario is for 1.00"-3.00" to fall in 1-2 weeks, compared to normal rain of 3.00"-5.00" through then, leaving the coverage of dry soybeans moderately higher than last November, and much higher than two and three years ago.  Some rain returns in 1-2 weeks to Argentina; heaviest in the west
• CZ, dn $.0050 @ $4.0050; CH, up $.0050 @ $4.0650. Funds bought 5 K as commodities and equities all moved higher              
• SF, up $.0475 @ $10.69; SH, up $.0550 @ $10.6325.  Funds bought 8 SB; 3 SBM; 7 SBO. Board crush: $1.31 (Z/X), -$.09; LY, $0.78
• WZ, dn $.0275 @ $6.0525; WH, dn $.0250 @ $6.0750.  The funds bought 2 K on election day                               

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports remains at 33 to 37 mbu per week  

·       T-storm Weather®: Dry and very mild upper-level high pressure dominates the central U.S. over the next week, leaving maximums in the 60s-70s-80s & minimums in the 30s-40s most days; rain returns to western areas Nov. 9-10

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 110.0 MMT; neutral bias goring forward

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are estimated in a broad range of 75 to 100 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: A total of 72% of expected Brazil soybean production was drier than normal over the 30 days ending Nov. 1, including 49% and 17% with less than one-half and one-fourth of normal; moderately drier than 2019

·       ATI Research: Near-term exports of U.S. wheat are projected to range from 12-17 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: Rain (0.50”-1.50”) Nov. 9-10 impacts U.S. HRW wheat over eastern half of central/southern Plains

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLZ20, +$0.95 @ $38.61; EBF, +$0.99 @ $40.70; EBF-CLF, +0.03; RBZ, +.0159; NGZ, -.024; HOZ, +.0229

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude +1.1 (-8.0); Gasoline -1.0 (+2.5); Distillates -2.3 (-0.6).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.945 mbpd (range: 0.9250-0.956).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 19.757 mb (range: 19.500-19.992)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0175 higher yesterday at $1.5350.  Basis, weaker: NYC, -$.0525 @ $.0150; Gulf, -$.0275 @ +$.0350; Dallas, -$.0425 @ +$.04; Tampa, -$.0425 @ +$.14; LA, -$.0720 @ +$.0550

·       Ethanol RIN values, firm: 2019’s, +0.75 @ 55- 58 ½; 2020’s: +1.00 @ 56 -59 ½; 2021, +0.75 @ 58 -61 ½                                    ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;          

· &n​bsp;     The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading $.0182 firmer at -$.2799 per gallon this morning  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>            &nbs​p;             

• Choice boxed beef increased $0.79 on Tuesday to $209.44, and is $2.74 higher versus last week
• Tuesday’s week-to-week gain in choice boxed beef was the largest since Sep. 25
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.17 on Tue. to $81.62, and is $6.20 lower compared to a week ago
• Lean Hog Index eased $0.60 on Tue. to $72.88.  December futures declined $0.550 and are $7.480 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather