HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CZ, +$.01; SF, -$.0025; WZ, +$.0050; KWZ, +$.0075

·       What caught my eye:  Ethanol production rose slightly from the prior week to 1.033 mbpd but continues to run well below the USDA forecast:  grind is running about 150 million bushels below the USDA forecast of 5.425, another indication of weak demand

·       Is there a deal? Or, not?  Hong Kongl unrest pressures markets as well.  ASIA: Weaker--Nikkei, -0.48%; Shanghai, -0.25%; Hang Seng, -1.57%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.12%; FTSE, -0.61%; CAC, -0.19%.  WALL STREET—Futures are slightly weaker-- DOW, -6; S&P, -1.00; NAS, -4.75.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: -$0.12 @ $56.89; Gold: -$5.20 @ $1,469; $ Index: -.116 @ 97.818

• T-storm Weather®: thunderstorms affect central and northern Brazil at varying points over the next two weeks, but amounts are slightly reduced because coverage and amounts were lower than expected over the last five days.  Southern Brazil and Paraguay remain drier than normal through the period as agricultural drought persists or intensifies.  Drought is also widespread in Argentina, but substantial rainfall through Sunday eases dryness leading into December
• CZ, up $.015 @ $3.6575; CH, up $.0050 @ $3.7775.  The funds were sellers of 7 K at mid-week 
• SF, dn $.0025 @ $9.0475; SH, dn $.0025 @ $9.1875.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 4 SBM and bot 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.98, +5; LY, $1.04
• WZ, up $.0050 @ $5.16; WH, up $.0075 @ $5.1925.  The funds bought 1 K on Wednesday                

CORN/SORGHUM

·     ​  Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 16-35 mbu for 19/20 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: a potent & fast-moving system produces 0.40” to 0.80” of rain across the northwest two-thirds of the U.S. Corn Belt today with highest coverage & amounts in / adjacent IA, MN, & WI.  Several days of drying follow

·       Consultant: in Brazil, there is concern how about how late safrinha (double crop) corn will be planted due to delayed soybean planting in some states.  The ideal planting window for safrinha corn ends about the third week of February

• Ethanol grind: Total of 1,033,000 barrels/day for week end Nov. 15—up 3 thou v. prior week but 0.9% below last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 29-51 for 19/20 soybeans; 100-450 for 19/20 soymeal; and 5-25 for 19/20 soyoil

·       T-storm Weather®: a potent & fast-moving system produces 0.40” to 0.80” of rain across the northwest two-thirds of the U.S. Corn Belt today with highest coverage & amounts in / adjacent IA, MN, & WI.  Several days of drying follow

·       Consultant: the weather for soybeans in Brazil has improved, but it is still not what it should be for mid-November

·       T-storm Weather®: several significant rains & snows affect central U.S. Nov. 26-Dec. 4, producing 1.00”-2.00” across  the Corn Belt & Delta, & lesser but significant totals of 0.50”-1.50” in the Plains (including most overwintering wheat)

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-18 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLF20, -$0.12 @ $56.89; EBF, -$0.20 @ $62.21; EBF-QCLF, -.09; RBF, -.0089; NGF, +.004; HOF, +.0025

·       Chicago ethanol was $.009 lower at $1.53; basis values were firmer:  NYC, +$.014 @ +$.0950; Gulf, +$.0015 @ +$.0475; Dallas, +$.019 @ +.0850; Tampa, +$.019 @ +$.190; LA, +$.014 @ +$.150

·       Ethanol RINs were slightly firmer: 2018’s, +0.25 @ 6 ½-7; 2019’s, +0.625 @ 12 ¾ -13 ½; 2020’s, +.50 @ 21 ½ -23                                       &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                

·&​nbsp;      The December RBOB/December ethanol spread widened $.0516 to $.2513/gallon on Wednesday   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &n​bsp;    

• Choice boxed beef was 80-cents lower on Wednesday at $238.21 and is down $4.13 compared to last week 
• Estimates for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Nov. 1 on feed, 101.4%; Placed in Oct., 112.2%; Marketed in Oct., 99.6%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.58 on Wed. to $85.98 but is still down 45-cents v. last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.29 on Wed. to $59.58.  December futures eased $1.700 but are $0.87 above the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®