Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0025; SF, +$.0050; WZ, -$.0275; KWZ, -$.0275.  Del’y:  RR, 1 SB, 125.  Dalian: C, +4 ½; SB, + 12 ¼   

·       What caught my eye: Brazil shipped an average of 209 K MT of corn per day during the first 4 days of November, a significant INCREASE (41%) versus the November 2019 pace of 206 K; beans on the other hand, were about 20% less at 201 K vs 248 LY 

·       New economic restrictions in some states raise recovery concerns; Biden covid advisor suggesting 4-6 week shutdown?

• Asia:  Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, +0.68%; Shanghai, -0.11%; Hang Seng, -0.22%
• EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.60%; FTSE, -0.22%; CAC, -0.65%
• WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, -125; S&P, -3.5; NAS, +45.5
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$0.09 @ $41.54; Gold: +$8.80 @ $1,870; Mar $ Index, -0.264 @ 92.730
• T-storm Weather®: In central Brazil, the most likely scenario is for 2.00” to 4.00” to affect a wide production area over the next two weeks, compared to normal rainfall of ~3.00” to ~5.00”.  In Argentina, near-normal rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern and southwestern growing areas over the next two weeks, but more than half of expected early-corn and soybean production will be much drier than normal
• CZ, up $.0025 @ $4.1750; CH, up $.0025 @ $4.225. Funds sell 7 K as they take some profit off the table              
• SF, up $.0050 @ $11.53; SH, up $.01 @ $11.5225.  Funds bot 4 SB; 8 BO, sld 1 SM. Board crush: $1.29 (Z/X), +$.02; LY, $0.89
• WZ, dn $.0275 @ $5.9525; WH, dn $.0250 @ $6.0350.  The funds sold an estimated 6 K at mid-week                               
​

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: Br​azilian farmers have indicated that they may be willing to plant their safrinha (double crop) corn later than normal in early 2021 due to the record high domestic corn prices currently being seen  

·       T-storm Weather®: After widespread rain over Oct. 19-26 improved topsoil and subsoil moisture in Argentina, there was little since, leaving ~70% of early-corn drier than normal over the last 90 days

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 10:00 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina  2020/21 soybean estimate is lowered 1.0 MMT to 51.0 MMT.  Although only 4% of the crop has been planted, many areas have been in a moisture deficit since March & spring rains have been very irregular

·       T-storm Weather®: ~85% of Brazil soybeans were drier than normal over last 7-, 14-, 30-, 60-, & 90-days ending Mon.

·       T-storm Weather®: Winter wheat in Russia stays much drier than normal over the next two weeks, as areas of high pressure continue to suppress rainfall

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLZ20, +$0.09 @ $41.54; EBF, +$0.12 @ $43.92; EBF-CLF, +0.06; RBZ, -.0007; NGZ, -.019; HOZ, +.0022

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -0.9 (-5.1); Gasoline -0.3 (-3.3); Distillates -1.9 (-5.6).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.975 mbpd (range: 0.945-1.055).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 20.114 mb (range: 19.638 - 21.500)

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.0295 yesterday at $1.53125/gallon. Basis, mixed: NYC, -$.00325 @ -$.00625; Gulf, -$.03575 +$.03375; Dallas, +$.00925 @ +$.04875; Tampa, +$.00925 @ +$.14375; LA, +$.00925 @ +$.05375

·       Ethanol RIN values, steady: 2019’s, unch @ 67-68 ½; 2020’s, unch @ 67 ½ -69; 2021, unch @ 68 ½ - 70                                         &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;      

·     ​;  The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is up $.0365 at -$.2376 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &n​bsp;    

• Choice boxed beef increased $0.59 on Wednesday, and is $12.65 higher compared to a week ago
• Week-to-week increases in choice boxed beef have been seen for 10 consecutive trading days
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $0.39 on Wed. to $82.23, and is up $1.14 versus the previous week
• Lean Hog Index gained $0.12 on Wed. to $71.37.  December futures fell $0.325 and are $6.570 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather