HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, -$.0125; SF, +$.0125; WZ, -$.0325; KWZ, -$.0375. Del’y: 11/13: RR, 0; SB, 25
· What caught my eye: From Global Grains again—Ukraine speaker: “Let’s Make Our Rivers Great Again, a Trumpism to make a point that the country needs to invest in river infrastructure to become an even more serious player in world grain trade
· Well, deal or, no deal? ASIA: Down--Nikkei, -0.85%; Shanghai, -0.33%; Hang Seng, -1.82%. EUROPE: Down—DAX, -0.85%; FTSE, -0.58%; CAC, -0.48%. WALL STREET—Futures are weaker-- DOW, -114 S&P, -12.75; NAS, -42.25. EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.41 @ $56.39; Gold: +$11.40 @ $1,465; $ Index: +.053 @ 98.362
· T-storm Weather®: The GFS output is complete through Saturday for South America and is slightly wetter in Cordoba, but otherwise similar through then. The T-storm Weather Outlook is unchanged with t-storms over the next five days to be followed by wetter weather in central and northern Brazil, drying in southern Brazil, and scattered t-storms in 7 to 10 days in Argentina. Quiet weather affects U.S feedlots the next 7 to 10 days (or longer) as areas of high pressure leave a wide area dry
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CZ, dn $.01250 @ $3.7650; CH, dn $.01 @ $3.8550. The funds were again buyers of 6 K, mostly on harvest progress worries
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SF, up $.0125 @ $9.1825; SH, up $.01 @ $9.3125. Funds: Even SB; bot 2 K SBM & sold 5 SBO. Board Crush: $0.89, -1; LY, $1.00
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WZ, dn $.0325 @ $5.1375; WH, dn $.0275 @ $5.19. The funds bought 6 K Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Corn was 66% harvested, up 14 points from a week ago and trailing LY’s 83% pace and the 5-year average of 85%. Milo was 88% complete, up 10 points and versus 72% LY and the average of 80%
· Corn inspections of 22.1 were towards the upper end of the trade’s 14-24 mbu range and puts 1st quarter exports on a pace to reach 221, 4 million less than the ATI forecast and down sharply from the 633 exported last fall
· CZ’s $3.77 ¾ close on Tuesday was down $.01 from a week earlier and 11 ¼ cents above the year-ago CZ18 finish
· Corn and soybean harvest progress both a couple of points below trade ideas and wheat conditions also came in below market expectations yesterday afternoon
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· WZ2019 finished at $5.17 yesterday, up 1 ¾ cents from a week earlier and 9 ¾ cents higher than LY’s WZ2018 close
· Soybeans were 85% harvested, up 10 points on the week; trailing LY by 2 points and the 5-year by 7 points
· Soybean inspections declined from 54.5 to 48.9, about 10 short of the top end of the trade’s broad, 29-59 mbu range. Shipments are on pace to hit 519 mbu, 9 more than Q1 of 2018 but below ATI’s 550 estimate
· SF’s $9.17 close Tuesday was down $.17 ¼ from a week earlier but up $.38 ¾ from SF2019 of a year ago
· Winter wheat ratings fell 3 to 54%, same as a year ago. 92% of the crop was planted, vs 88% LY and equal to the avg. 78% of the crop has emerged, 2 points ahead of LY but 3 off the 5-year average
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLZ19, -$0.41 @ $56.39; EBF, -$0.69 @ $61.37; EBF-QCLF, -.27; RBZ, -.0081; NGZ, -.020; HOZ, -.0219
· Chicago ethanol was $.0055 higher at $1.5485; basis values mixed: NYC, -$.0080 @ +$.1015; Gulf, +$.0070 @ +$.0990; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +.0515; Tampa, -$.0055 @ +$.1565; LA, -$.11055 @ +$.12140
· Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2018’s, -0.50 @ 6 ¼ -6 ¾; 2019’s, -0.50 @ 13 ¾ -14 ¼; 2020’s, -0.25 @ 24 -24 ½     ;
· The December RBOB/December ethanol spread closed $.0165 wider at $.1814/gallon on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   </p>
· Choice beef cut-out was up $1.92 Tue and $4.45 above LW; Select beef was $2.54 higher @ $216.23, p $6.41 from LW
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Early calls have cash cattle opening $1 higher with live hogs steady on news a trade deal “may” be close
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was up $2.31 Tuesday to $87.78 and $9.92 higher than the prior week
· CME Lean Hog Index was down $.50 on Monday to $48.94 and down $1.42 from a week ago
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN