HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, -$.0125; SX, -$.0650; WZ, +$.0550; KWZ, +$.0625   

·       What caught my eye: Brazil October corn exports expected to fall 14% year to year to 5.66 MMT; soybean exports to decline to 2.75, or nearly 50% less than October 2019’s 5.1 MMT total

·       Global markets slide as hopes fade that U.S. leaders will reach an economic aid package prior to November 3^rd

• Asia:  Lower-- Nikkei, -0.51%; Shanghai, -0.26%; Hang Seng, -2.06%
• EUROPE: Sharply lower—DAX, -3.01%; FTSE, -2.23%; CAC, -2.37%
• WALL STREET: Much weaker-–DOW futures, -279; S&P, -37; NAS, -178
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$1.03 @ $40.01; Gold: -$8.10 @ $1,899; Mar $ Index, +0.374 @ 93.720
• T-storm Weather®: In the U.S., a sharply colder period begins over the next 24 hours, culminating with a hard and intense freeze in/near the Dakotas and MT Sunday/Monday. The central U.S. then becomes divided by coldness in the west, mild weather to the east, which will help some rain and t-storms to affect the Corn Belt.  Some rain is possible in the HRW areas of the Plains next week while chances are better further to the East. Much needed as 90% of U.S. HRW received less than ¼ normal precip past 30
• CZ, dn $.0125 @ $3.9525; CH, dn $.0125 @ $4.0125.  China buys more corn; funds buy 4 K         
• SX, dn $.0650 @ $10.4975; SF, dn $.0750 @ $10.4975. Funds: bot 5 SB; bot 3 SBO, 6 SBM. Board crush: $1.16 (Z/X), +.07; LY, $0.77
• WZ, up $.0550 @ $6.0225; WH, up $.0475 @ $6.0650.  Funds buy 2 K, still on the dry side in Russia/Ukraine                  

 

​   CORN/SORGHUM

·       CZ20 closed up $.0525 yesterday at $3.9650 for its highest close since January 28^th and 1 ¼ cents below LY’s CZ2019 close

·       China bought 16.5 mbu of corn yesterday, bringing its YTD total to approximately 409 mbu

·       ATI Research: Not only were Brazil’s corn exports the first part of October well below expectations, but Black Sea shipments for the same period were barely 1/3^rd of the year ago total

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       China also bought soybeans yesterday (9.7 mbu) and now has 850 million on the books

·       SX’s $10.56 ¼ close Wednesday was another contract high and compares to SX19’s $9.29 close a year ago

·       Scattered t-storms should recur within S Brazil and Paraguay over the next few days as another wave or two of energy passes, while much of Argentina and central Brazil stay dry. Near & below normal precip mostly likely next 2 weeks

·       KWZ closed up $.04 yesterday at $5.35 ¼, 9 ¼ cents below a week ago and $1.10 per bushel above WKZ19 a year ago 

·       T-Storm Weather: the GFS model leaves most of the HRW area in the Plains dry through October 24^th

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLX20, -$1.03 @ $40.01; EBZ, -$1.01 @ $42.31; EBZ-QCLX, unch; RBX, -.0284; NGX, +.122; HOX, -.0254

·       EIA Ethanol Report:  trade expects prod, +6 K at 929 K bpd (920-937); stx, +124 K at 19.796; API, crude, -5.4; distillates, -3.9; gasoline, -1.5

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00675 higher at $1.4475; basis, unchanged: NYC, @ $.0825; Gulf, @ +$.10250; Dallas, @ +$.0925; Tampa, @ +$.1775; LA, @ +$.1625

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +0.25 @ 49 ¼ -49 ½; 2020’s: +0.25 @ 49 ¾ -50; 2021, +0.25 @ 52 ¼ -52 ½                                            ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                                                &n​bsp; 

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is trading $.0378 lower at -$.2657     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                      &nb​sp;   

• Choice boxed beef lost $1.30 on Wednesday to $211.44, but is down $5.74 versus a week ago
• October live cattle futures on Wed. closed at $108.375, against $110.175 a week ago
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $0.55 on Wed. to $95.25, & is $1.53 higher compared to last week
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.03 on Wed. to $78.24.  October futures firmed $0.625and are $0.185 below the index

08.2Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®