HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CU, +$.01; SQ, +$.015; WU, -$.0650; KWU, -$.0450 

·       What caught my eye:   Black Sea wheat exports are off to a slow start, averaging 17 mbu/week, down from 25 LY for the same period.  Year-end corn exports are even less at 6.8 per week and versus 23.2 a year ago

·       Gold soars to a new high; U.S./China tensions persist/COVID-19.  Asia—Mostly lower:  Nikkei, -0.16%; Shanghai, +0.26%; Hang Seng, -0.41%; EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +0.34%; FTSE, -0.17%; CAC, -0.07%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher --DOW, +120; S&P, +16.5; NAS, +101.  EXTERNALS: Sep crude, +$0.16 @ $41.45; Gold: +$41.20 @ $1,939; Sep $ Index, -.605 @ 93.775

·       T-storm Weather®: rains over the weekend were expectedly substantial in much of the Dakotas, MN, & NE; mixed in IA,  Scattered thunderstorms affect the southern half to two-thirds of U.S. corn & soybeans today as a strong cool front breaks heat, producing heavy totals in & adjacent northeast KS.  A fairly cool & dry period follows for 7 to 10 days across the northern half of each crop (& most spring wheat), but the southern half turns wet over Wed.-Sat. as a slow-moving system produces 1.00”-2.00”

• CU, up $.01 @ $3.2725; CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.3625.  The funds bought 2 K on Friday as weather remains non-threatening                                 
• SQ, up $.0150 @ $9.0625; SX, up $.01 @ $9.0025.  Funds: Sold 1 SB, 1 SBO, bot 1 SBM.  Board crush: $0.63 (Q/Q), +3; LY, $0.97
• WU, dn $.0650 @ $5.33; WZ, dn $.0575 @ $5.3950.  The funds ended the week buying 4 K, competitor production concerns         

CORN/SORGHUM

· &nbs​p;     U.S. corn Good/Excellent crop condition ratings in today’s USDA Crop Progress report are projected to be 68-70%, compared to 69% last week and 58% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: a pattern more similar to that of earlier in July most likely begins Aug. 5-9 across the U.S. Corn Belt as coolness eases & warmer air mass expands, helping some thunderstorms to form in varying areas at varying times 

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 38.3 mbu needed; 45.2 last week.  Milo—7.4 needed; 2.8 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: a continuation of below to much-below normal rainfall occurs on corn over the next 10 to 14 days in much of the E.U., Russia, & Ukraine; however, sustained warmth is only likely in France, Italy, & Spain

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      &nbs​p;U.S. soybean Good/Excellent crop condition ratings in today’s USDA Crop Progress report are projected to be 68-70%, compared to 69% last week and 54% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: a pattern more similar to that of earlier in July most likely begins Aug. 5-9 across the U.S. Corn Belt as coolness eases & warmer air mass expands, helping some thunderstorms to form in varying areas at varying times 

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.5 mbu needed; 16.6 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: some eastern Australia wheat received rain this weekend, but more is needed with little foreseen

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.2 mbu needed; 18.4 last week

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLU20, +$0.16 @ $41.45; EBU, +$0.13 @ $43.47; EBU-QCLU, -0.01; RBU, -.0117; NGU, -.039; HOU, -.0038

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0025 weaker at $1.2950; basis, weaker: NYC, -$.01 @ +$.0550; Gulf, -$.0025 @ +$.09; Dallas, -$.0075 @ +$.0750; Tampa, -$.0125 @ +$.19; LA, -$.0025 @ +$.12

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +.25 @ 45 ¼ -46; 2020’s: +.1250 @ 47 ¾ -48                              &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                   

·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread widened $.0187 at $.1535/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        ​               ​

• Choice boxed beef was $0.49 lower on Friday at $201.77, but is still up $1.30 versus a week ago
• Cattle on Feed: July 1 on feed, 99.6% (99.9% avg est); June placed, 102.1% (103.6%); June Marketed, 101.3% (101.0%)
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.28 on Friday to $69.97, but is still down $0.98 versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index increased $0.45 on Fri. to $50.14.  August futures eased $0.475 but are $3.860 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®