HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 am CDT

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CU, +$.0150; SQ, +$.0275; WU, -$.0025; KWU, -$.0250.  Dely: SBM, 0, SBO, 14; RR, 10; HRW, 5; SRW, 5

·       What caught my eye:  Combined old/new crop unshipped corn sales of 482 mbu are 40+% higher than a year ago at this time but about 30 below average.  It’s early but the #’s suggest SON exports of 425-450, versus 268 LY

·       Economic impact of a return to Covid-19 lockdowns pressures U.S. equity futures.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -1.06%; Shanghai, -1.95%; Hang Seng, -1.84%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.25%; FTSE, +0.35%; CAC, +0.23%.  WALL STREET: Futures, lower --DOW, -135; S&P, -13.5; NAS, -28.5.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude, -$1.02 @ $38.60; Gold: +$9.20 @ $1,813; Sep $ Index, -0.023 @ 96.650

·       T-storm Weather®: some light showers & thunderstorms linger in the eastern Corn Belt today, and another thunderstorm cluster develops in eastern SD and eastern NE tonight.  Some additional rain follows in the eastern Corn Belt Sat.-Sun.  Temps gradually turn cooler through Sun., then much warmer Mon.-Tue. as a large system in Canada produces a large field of southwesterly winds

• CU, up $.0150 @ $3.5025; CZ, up $.0150 @ $3.5850.  The funds again bought 8 K on hot weather concerns                          
• SQ, up $.0275 @ $8.9925; SX, up $.0225 @ $9.0375.  Funds: Bought 4 SB, 5 SM, sold 3 BO.  Board crush: $0.69 (Q/Q),+1; LY, $0.98
• WU, dn $.0025 @ $5.2475 WZ, dn $.01 @ $5.29.  The funds bought 7 K—EU/Russian production uncertainty                          <​/wbr>

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA​ Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. corn carryout, 2.272 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 2.731 bbu

·       Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn crop is 15.041 bbu (range: 14.868-15.296) vs. 15.995 in June

·       T-storm Weather®: it is most probable for heat around July 15-16 in southern U.S. corn areas to contrast with a cool-off in northern areas.  The best rain chances next week are in the northern third of the Corn Belt and Plains

·       ATI Research: combined old and new-crop unshipped U.S. corn export sales as of July 2 were 482 mbu, which is 42% higher compared to 339 mbu last year but 24% lower versus 637 mbu two years ago

·       T-storm Weather®: corn in Ukraine recently turned sharply cooler, but needed rainfall is five to ten days out

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.586 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 0.424 bbu

·       Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. soybean crop is 4.154 bbu (range: 4.115-4.324) vs. 4.125 in June

·       ATI Research: combined old & new-crop unshipped U.S. soybean export sales as of July 2 were 571 mbu, +23% v. 465 last year.  This is 2^nd highest total ever for early July & implies Sep-Nov exports should be at least 90 mbu above 2019

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess for 20/21 U.S. all wheat carryout, 0.950 bbu (range: 0.825-1.006)

·       USDA Crop Production report: avg. trade guess for 2020 U.S. winter wheat production is 1.249 bbu (range: 1.223-1.285), while the avg. trade guess for 2020 U.S. other spring wheat production is 0.548 bbu (range: 0.529-0.562)

ENERGY

·       Down: CLQ20, -$1.02 @ $38.60; EBU, -$0.94 @ $41.41; EBU-QCLU, +$0.07; RBQ, -.0248; NGQ, -.034; HOQ, -.0208

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0025 weaker at $1.6075; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.0350 @ +$.0250; Gulf, +$.0125 @ +$.01750; Dallas, +$.0175 @ -$.00250; Tampa, +$.0125 @ +$.11250; LA, -$.0325 @ +$.19750

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -0.75 @ 44- 46; 2020’s: -0.1250 @ 47 ½ -48 ¾                                                        &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​               

​·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol inversion increased $.0754 to -$.14450/gallon, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                              &​nbsp;        <​/strong>

• Choice boxed beef was $0.24 lower on Thursday at $203.59, and is down $1.85 compared to last week 
• Cash cattle sold for $155 to $157 on Thursday In Nebraska, and live cattle sold for $96 to $97
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $0.03 on Thu. to $67.13, & is up $0.67 compared to a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.17 on Thu. to $45.18.  July futures increased $1.800 & are now $0.670 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®