Skip to Main Content
Print

TRENDS Mixed CU, Down 1, SQ, Down 2, WU, Down 3

July 8, 2020 07:16 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CU, -$.0350; SQ, -$.04; WU, +$.02; KWU, +$.0225.  Dely: SBM, 0, SBO, 0; RR, 11; HRW, 33; SRW, 82

·       What caught my eye:  Oh?  The USDA attache in China expects the country’s 20-21 soybean imports to total 91 MMT, that’s 3 million LESS than the WASDE forecast for 19-20 and 5 BELOW the latter’s 20-21

·       Global markets nervous about U.S. response to Covid-19 surge.  Asia: Mostly firm--Nikkei, -0.78%; Shanghai, +1.74%; Hang Seng, +0.59%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.82%; FTSE, -0.44%; CAC, -1.44%.  WALL STREET: Futures, mostly lower --DOW, 50; S&P, -2.50; NAS, +10.25.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude, -$0.123 @ $40.50Gold: +$4.20 $1,814; Sep $ Index, +0.096 @ 96.935

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers scattered thunderstorms tonight & Thursday, with 0.50”-1.00” totals in the western Corn Belt (IA, KS, MN, MO, NE).  However, the front moves into a much less favorable environment for thunderstorms on Fri. to limit totals to 0.25”-0.75” in the eastern Corn Belt (IL, IN, MI, OH).  Very warm and hot weather continue for corn and soybeans through Thursday, followed by a several-day break as a cool front returns temperatures to normal levels for the first time in 15 days

  • CU, dn $.0350 @ $3.40; CZ, dn $.04 @ $3.4850.  The funds sold an estimated 7 K on Tuesday                       
  • SQ, dn $.04 @ $8.9275; SX, dn $.0450 @ $8.98.  Funds: Sold 2 SB, 2 SBM & bot 4 SBO.  Board crush: $0.71 (Q/Q), 0; LY, $1.02
  • WU, up $.02 @ $4.9725; WZ, up $.0175 @ $5.0375.  The funds were again buyers, 3 K                         

CORN/SORGHUM

&midd​ot;       USDA WASDE report on July 10: Avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. corn carryout, 2.272 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 2.731 bbu

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess for 19/20 Brazil corn, 100.4 MMT (range 98.0-102.0); Argentina, 49.9 (49.0-50.0)

·       T-storm Weather®: heat develops across U.S. corn production from July 15 forward, leaving a wide area warmer to much-warmer than normal July 15-20.  A wide area is also forecast to be drier to much drier than normal July 11-20

·       ATI Research: analysis of the USDA Crop Progress report suggests that U.S. corn silking on average increases approximately 17% from July 5 to July 12 to approximately 33%

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA WASDE report on July 10: Avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.586 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 0.424 bbu

·       USDA WASDE: Avg. guess 19/20 Brazil soybeans, 123.3 MMT (range 121.0-125.0); Argentina, 50.0 (49.0-51.0)

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybeans blooming on average increase approximately 17% from July 5 to July 12 to approx. 41%

·       USDA WASDE report on July 10: Avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. all wheat carryout, 0.950 bbu (range 0.825-1.006)

·       USDA July 10 Crop Production report: avg. trade guess for 2020 U.S. winter wheat production is 1.249 bbu (range 1.223-1.285), while the avg. trade guess 2020 U.S. other spring wheat production is 0.548 bbu (range 0.529-0.562)

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLQ20, -$0.12 @ $40.50EBU, -$0.08 $43.01EBU-QCLU, +$0.05; RBQ, -.0089; NGQ, -.027; HOQ, -.0082

·       EIA Report Estimates were unavailable (API): crude NA (+2.0); Gasoline NA (-1.8); Distillates NA (-.850).  Ethanol estimates: production, +18 K @ 918 K (903-950  range); stocks, +148 K @ 20.31 mb 

·       Chicago ethanol was $.03 higher at $1.56; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.03 @ +$.0500; Gulf, -$.0250 @ +$.0050; Dallas, -$.02 @ $.000; Tampa, +$.01 @ +$.14; LA, +$.05 @ +$.23

·       Ethanol RIN values, firm: 2019’s, +1.00 @ 44- 45; 2020’s: +0.1250 @ 46 -47 ½                                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                                                  ​;                        ​      

·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread remained inverted, gaining $.0008 to -$.07, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                     ​

  • Choice boxed beef eased $0.16 on Tuesday to $205.30, and is $1.67 lower compared to last week
  • Light cash cattle trade developed on Tue. for $94 to $95 in the South, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $2.30 on Tue. to $62.03, & is $0.33 lower compared to a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.24 on Tue. to $45.90.  July futures fell $0.425 and are $1.375 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
...

[Message clipped]  View entire message
 
 
2 Attachments
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Back

 

936 South Moore Road, Rochelle, IL 61068
(815) 562 - 8723 | Fax: (815) 562 - 7543 | Privacy Policy

facebook twitter 100px-Instagram_logo_2016.svg LinkedIn

© Maplehurst Farms. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer | View Mobile Site
The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial.
You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

Market, News and Weather information provided by

image001

 

close (X)