HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CU, -$.0350; SQ, -$.04; WU, +$.02; KWU, +$.0225.  Dely: SBM, 0, SBO, 0; RR, 11; HRW, 33; SRW, 82

·       What caught my eye:  Oh?  The USDA attache in China expects the country’s 20-21 soybean imports to total 91 MMT, that’s 3 million LESS than the WASDE forecast for 19-20 and 5 BELOW the latter’s 20-21

·       Global markets nervous about U.S. response to Covid-19 surge.  Asia: Mostly firm--Nikkei, -0.78%; Shanghai, +1.74%; Hang Seng, +0.59%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.82%; FTSE, -0.44%; CAC, -1.44%.  WALL STREET: Futures, mostly lower --DOW, 50; S&P, -2.50; NAS, +10.25.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude, -$0.123 @ $40.50; Gold: +$4.20 @ $1,814; Sep $ Index, +0.096 @ 96.935

·       T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers scattered thunderstorms tonight & Thursday, with 0.50”-1.00” totals in the western Corn Belt (IA, KS, MN, MO, NE).  However, the front moves into a much less favorable environment for thunderstorms on Fri. to limit totals to 0.25”-0.75” in the eastern Corn Belt (IL, IN, MI, OH).  Very warm and hot weather continue for corn and soybeans through Thursday, followed by a several-day break as a cool front returns temperatures to normal levels for the first time in 15 days

• CU, dn $.0350 @ $3.40; CZ, dn $.04 @ $3.4850.  The funds sold an estimated 7 K on Tuesday                       
• SQ, dn $.04 @ $8.9275; SX, dn $.0450 @ $8.98.  Funds: Sold 2 SB, 2 SBM & bot 4 SBO.  Board crush: $0.71 (Q/Q), 0; LY, $1.02
• WU, up $.02 @ $4.9725; WZ, up $.0175 @ $5.0375.  The funds were again buyers, 3 K                         

CORN/SORGHUM

&midd​ot;       USDA WASDE report on July 10: Avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. corn carryout, 2.272 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 2.731 bbu

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess for 19/20 Brazil corn, 100.4 MMT (range 98.0-102.0); Argentina, 49.9 (49.0-50.0)

·       T-storm Weather®: heat develops across U.S. corn production from July 15 forward, leaving a wide area warmer to much-warmer than normal July 15-20.  A wide area is also forecast to be drier to much drier than normal July 11-20

·       ATI Research: analysis of the USDA Crop Progress report suggests that U.S. corn silking on average increases approximately 17% from July 5 to July 12 to approximately 33%

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA WASDE report on July 10: Avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.586 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 0.424 bbu

·       USDA WASDE: Avg. guess 19/20 Brazil soybeans, 123.3 MMT (range 121.0-125.0); Argentina, 50.0 (49.0-51.0)

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybeans blooming on average increase approximately 17% from July 5 to July 12 to approx. 41%

·       USDA WASDE report on July 10: Avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. all wheat carryout, 0.950 bbu (range 0.825-1.006)

·       USDA July 10 Crop Production report: avg. trade guess for 2020 U.S. winter wheat production is 1.249 bbu (range 1.223-1.285), while the avg. trade guess 2020 U.S. other spring wheat production is 0.548 bbu (range 0.529-0.562)

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLQ20, -$0.12 @ $40.50; EBU, -$0.08 @ $43.01; EBU-QCLU, +$0.05; RBQ, -.0089; NGQ, -.027; HOQ, -.0082

·       EIA Report Estimates were unavailable (API): crude NA (+2.0); Gasoline NA (-1.8); Distillates NA (-.850).  Ethanol estimates: production, +18 K @ 918 K (903-950  range); stocks, +148 K @ 20.31 mb 

·       Chicago ethanol was $.03 higher at $1.56; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.03 @ +$.0500; Gulf, -$.0250 @ +$.0050; Dallas, -$.02 @ $.000; Tampa, +$.01 @ +$.14; LA, +$.05 @ +$.23

·       Ethanol RIN values, firm: 2019’s, +1.00 @ 44- 45; 2020’s: +0.1250 @ 46 -47 ½                                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                                                  ​;                        ​      

·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread remained inverted, gaining $.0008 to -$.07, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                     ​

• Choice boxed beef eased $0.16 on Tuesday to $205.30, and is $1.67 lower compared to last week
• Light cash cattle trade developed on Tue. for $94 to $95 in the South, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $2.30 on Tue. to $62.03, & is $0.33 lower compared to a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.24 on Tue. to $45.90.  July futures fell $0.425 and are $1.375 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®