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TRENDS Mixed CN, Up 3, SN, Down 1, WN, Up 2

June 29, 2020 06:58 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CN, +$.03 SN, -$.0050; WN, +$.03; KWN, -$.01

·       What caught my eye:  ANEC, a Brazilian grain trade association, says exporters should not give China coronavirus free guarantees—too much testing involved; may open the window a bit wider for U.S. exports

·       Futures are mixed as there was a record surge in U.S. COVID cases.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, 2.30%; Shanghai, -0.61%; Hang Seng, -1.01%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.43%; FTSE, +0.24%; CAC, +0.061.  WALL STREET: Futures, firm --DOW, +82; S&P, +3.75; NAS, -28.5.   EXTERNALS: Aug crude, +$0.05 @ $38.54Gold: +$4.60 $1,785; Sep $ Index, -.274 @ 97.130

·       T-storm Weather®: above-normal temps dominate most U.S. crops the next two weeks as a very warm to hot & muggy air mass stagnates.  Scattered thunderstorms affect varying areas the next several days as the transition to warmth completes, including a mix of drier corn, soybeans, & spring wheat.  Upper-level winds then dramatically weaken in response to warmth, only allowing weak circulations to wobble in unclear manners the first week of July, triggering some rain, but leaving most drier than normal

  • CN, up $.0300 @ $3.2075; CU, up $.0275 @ $3.22.  The funds ended the week selling 5 K                         
  • SN, dn $.0050 @ $8.6450; SQ, unch @ $8.60.  Funds: sold—6 SB, 4 SBO, 4 SBM.  Board crush: $0.55 (N/N), -7; LY, $1.05
  • WN, up $.03 @ $4.77; WU, up $.0325 @ $4.79.  The funds were sellers of 8 K on Friday                    

CORN/SORGHUM

·&n​bsp;      U.S. corn Good/Excellent crop condition ratings in today’s USDA Crop Progress report are projected to be 71-73%, compared to 72% last week and 56% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: heat likely intensifies for the U.S. Corn Belt over July 8-12 to allow better-organized waves of energy to trigger thunderstorms in the north, but less-so south, likely leaving at least some corn in need of rain

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 51.5 mbu needed; 51.0 last week.  Milo—5.8 needed; 4.3 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: corn in Ukraine turns increasingly warm/dry next 7-10 days after substantial rains earlier in June

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean Good/Excellent crop condition ratings in today’s USDA Crop Progress report are projected to be 69-71%, compared to 70% last week and 54% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: heat likely intensifies for the U.S. Corn Belt over July 8-12 to allow better-organized waves of energy to trigger thunderstorms in the north, but less-so south, likely leaving at least some soybeans in need of rain

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.9 mbu needed; 9.4 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: heat across most U.S. crops likely intensifies over July 8-12 to allow better-organized waves of energy to trigger thunderstorms in the north, maintaining probabilities for needed rain on spring wheat

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.3 mbu needed; 22.5 last week

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLQ20, +$0.05 @ $38.54EBQ, -$0.13 $40.89EBQ-QCLQ, -$0.20; RBQ, -.0215; NGQ, +.053; HOQ, +.0045

·       Chicago ethanol was steady at $1.25375; basis, firm: NYC, +$.00625 @ +$.12625; Gulf, +$.00125 @ +$.12125; Dallas, +$.02125 @ +$.13625; Tampa, +$.02625 @ +$.22625; LA, +$.02125 @ +$.31625

·       Ethanol RIN values, firm: 2019’s, +0.50 @ 41- 42; 2020’s: +0.50 @ 43 ¾ -45 ¼                                         &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​    

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread remains volatile, losing $.0485 to $.0107, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &n​bsp;                  

  • Choice boxed beef declined $1.09 on Friday to $207.17, and is down $5.30 lower compared to last week   
  • Moderate amount of cash cattle trade occurred last week; North sold for $152 to $156, & South sold from $93 to $97
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.09 on Fri. to $64.93, & is $1.23 higher versus the previous week
  • CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.36 on Fri. to $45.23.  July futures fell $1.65 but are still $0.045 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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