HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Mixed:  CN, $.0075; SN, -$.001; WN, +$.0025; KWN, -$.02 

·      What caught my eye: Brazil is likely out of the export corn export market until July; Argentine vessels numbers are 25% smaller than a year ago and recent Black Sea loadings dropped to a 7-month low, 35% less than the 2019 volume. Supportive U.S. #’s 

·      U.S. futures take a pause of yesterday’s strong performance.  Asia: Higher-- Nikkei, +1.49%; Shanghai, +0.81%; Hang Seng, +1.89%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.48%; FTSE, -0.45%; CAC, -0.82%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Lower--DOW, -61; S&P, -9.5; NAS, -7.   EXTERNALS: June crude, +$0.33 @ $32.15; Gold: +$2.80 @ $1,737; Sep $ Index, -0.247 @ 99.445

·      T-storm Weather®: heavy rain focuses on Ohio today, while scattered showers affect wet areas of IL, IN, MI, and WI.  Mainly dry weather continues elsewhere through at least Wednesday, followed by some thunderstorms in the Plains Thursday and the western Corn Belt Friday.  A stormy period then follows this weekend and next week as a system passes over Sat.-Mon., followed by smaller waves of energy that flow into a muggy air mass, though the exact setup will take some time to determine

• CN, up $.0075 @ $3.2150; CU, up $.0050 @ $3.2475.  The funds began the week buying 1 K             
• SN, dn $.01 @ $8.44; SQ, dn $.01 @ $8.4675.  Funds: sold 3 SB; 4 SBMO, bot 6 SBO.  Board crush: $0.83 (N/N), -3; LY, $1.25
• WN, up $.0025 @ $4.9725; WU, up $.0075 @ $5.0075.  The funds sold an estimated 3 K on Monday  

CORN/SORGHUM

·      USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of May 17 at 80% vs. 44% last year and the 5-year average of 71%;  sorghum planting progress estimated at 32% vs. 25% last year and the 5-year average of 34%

·      T-storm Weather®: rain occurs across most of central U.S. through Sun., producing 0.50”-1.50” across the southeast half of Corn Belt, 0.50”-1.00” across the northwest half, & 0.25”-0.75” in the Plains (except for no rain in most of ND)

·      ATI Research: U.S. ending stocks of corn for 19/20 pegged at 2.450 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 2.098 bbu

·      T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, dry weather prevails for second-crop corn through at least Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms follow Thu.-Fri. south when a cool front produces 0.50”-1.50” on corn in Mato Grosso do Sul & Paraná

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of May 17 at 53% vs. 16% last year and the 5-year average of 38%

·      T-storm Weather®: rain occurs across most of central U.S. through Sun., producing 0.50”-1.50” across the southeast half of Corn Belt, 0.50”-1.00” across the northwest half, & 0.25”-0.75” in the Plains (except for no rain in most of ND)

·      ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 19/20 pegged at 0.538 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.580 bbu

·      T-storm Weather®: more rain is needed for U.S. HRW wheat because the coverage of dryness included 49%, 51%, and 50% of the crop over the last 14, 30, and 60 days (as of Sunday morning)

·      ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent dn 1% to 52%; model pegs ‘20 crop @ 1.192 bbu; +4 mbu v last week

ENERGY

·      Mixed: CLM20, +$0.33 @ $32.15; EBN, -$0.25 @ $34.56; EBN-QCLN, -$0.05; RBM, +.0015; NGM, -.012; HOM, -.0098

·      Chicago ethanol was $.026 higher at $1.1510/gallon; basis, mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.01 @ +$.0590; Gulf, -$.0210 @ $.0740; Dallas, -$.0110 @ +$.1240; Tampa, +$.0040 @ +$.2290; LA, -$.021 @ +$.1890

·      Ethanol RINs values, firmer: 2018’s, +.3750 @ 23 ½ -25 ¾; 2019’s, +$.6250 @ 33 ½ -34; 2020’s: +.50 @ 36 ¾ -37 ¼                                            ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                 

​ ·      The June RBOB/June ethanol inverse shed $.0216 on Monday, closing at $.1142/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           &nb​sp;             &nbs​p;              

• Choice boxed beef plummeted $19.37 on Monday to $414.95, and is $53.63 lower compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $7.81 v. last week at $112.31/cwt, but is dn $4.34 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.97 on Mon. to $106.71, & is $14.24 lower versus last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $24.03/cwt vs. last week’s $27.04, last month’s $23.90 & last year’s $54.43

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®