HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CN, +$.0025; SN, +$.0150; WN, -$.0425; KWN, -$.0525.  Dely: SBM, 4; BO, 180; RR, 27; ETOH, 53

·       What caught my eye: Census SBM import/export data resulted in a rather significant upward revision to March domestic meal disappearance, nearly 150 K ST to 3.2 MST with YTD (pre-COVID) use up 3.4%, ahead of USDA’s 2.8% annual growth forecast

·       Markets await earnings results.  Asia: Firm-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, +0.63%; Hang Seng, +1.13%; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.24%; FTSE, +0.58%; CAC, -0.21%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Up--DOW, +201; S&P, +23.75; NAS, +73.25.   EXTERNALS: June crude, +$0.95 @ $25.51; Gold: -$4.80 @ $1,706; Sep $ Index, +0.423 @ 100.220

·       T-storm Weather®: for planting, unusual coolness over the next week produces several frosts in the Corn Belt and Dakotas.  Some showers accompany coolness, beyond a streak of rain Friday in parts of IL, IN, MO, OH, and the Delta.  Coolness retreats and temperatures turn much warmer from next Wed.-Fri. (May 13-15), helping to focus a stormy period on and near the Corn Belt, but giving a reprieve from frequent rains to the Delta

• CN, up $.0025 @ $3.1725; CU, unch @ $3.2325.  Fund buying was estimated at 2 K on Tuesday        
• SN, up $.0150 @ $8.41; SQ, up $.0150 @ $8.4275.  Funds bot 2 K SB, 3 K SBO, even SBM. Board crush: $0.87 (N/N), +1; LY, $1.21
• WN, dn $.0425 @ $5.1650; WU, dn $.04 @ $5.1975.  The funds sold 5 K yesterday           

CORN/SORGHUM

·    &nb​sp;  T-storm Weather®: in the Corn Belt, unseasonable coolness dominates a wide area the next 7-10 days.  Pockets of showers occur, though rainfall is only expected to be 0.20”-0.40” north & 0.50”-1.00” south, which is less than normal

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is unchanged this week at 97.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, a brief round of thunderstorms occurs today south (scattered 0.10”-0.50”), but little to none to the north.  A dry period follows until thunderstorms return May 12-13, but only minor rainfall is expected

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: in the Corn Belt, unseasonable coolness dominates a wide area the next 7-10 days.  Pockets of showers occur, though rainfall is only expected to be 0.20”-0.40” north & 0.50”-1.00” south, which is less than normal

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is steady this week at 121.0 MMT; neutral to slightly lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports remains at 15-20 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: for U.S. HRW wheat, some thunderstorms form Thu. in central & eastern areas, leaving western areas dry; all areas then turn cool and dry for several days.  Some additional thunderstorms follow May 11-12

ENERGY

·       Up: CLM20, +$0.95 @ $25.51; EBN, +$0.61 @ $31.58; EBN-QCLN, -$0.13; RBM, +.0128; NGM, -.070; HOM, +.0066

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +7.8 (+8.4); Gasoline, +0.0 (-2.2); Distillates, +2.9 (+6.1).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.541 mbpd (range: 0.510-0.565).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 26.091 mb (range 25.511-26.737)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.04625 higher yesterday at $1.04625/gallon; basis, mostly firm:  NYC, +$.00625 @ +$.05875; Gulf, +$.00375 @ $.07375; Dallas, +$.00375 @ +$.09875; Tampa, +$.01375 @ +$.20875; LA, -$.00625 @ +$.16125

·       Ethanol RINs values, firmer: 2018’s, +1.50 @ 23 -26; 2019’s, +1.375 @ 32 -34; 2020’s: +.6250 @ 36 ¼ -37 ½                                             ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;            

·  ​     The June RBOB/June ethanol inverse continues to narrow, off $.0468 yesterday to $.1457/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &nbs​p;           

• Choice boxed beef was $18.94 higher on Tuesday at $428.99, and is up $98.17 compared to last week
• There was light cash cattle trade on Tue. in parts of the North, mostly $150, ~$1 lower than last week's weighted avg.
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $5.91 on Tue. to $112.30, & is up $24.95 versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.56 on Tue. to $60.35.  May futures fell $1.575 but are still $5.80 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®