HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 am CDT 

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CN, unch; SN, +.0225; WN, -$.0375; KWN, -$.0250.  Dely: SBM, 9; BO, 44; RR, 4; HRW, 8; SRW, 2; SB, 12

·       What caught my eye: New crop corn balance sheet should be interesting and perhaps provide some volatility . . . the trade range on likely carry-out is 1.28 billion bushels according to one survey

·       Insightful . . . “the economic recovery may be complicated”?  Asia: Down-- Nikkei, -0.12%; Shanghai, -0.11%; Hang Seng, -1.45%; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.05%; FTSE, +0.64%; CAC, -0.32%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -16; S&P, -12.25; NAS, -4.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, $1.09 @ $25.23; Gold: +$10.10 @ $1,708; Sep $ Index, -0.095 @ 101.165

·       T-storm Weather®: another hard frost and freeze affects the northern third to half of the central U.S. today.  Coldness ends from southwest to northeast Wed.-Thu., marking the gradual start of a very warm to hot and muggy period for at least 5-10 days.  Pockets of rain occur in varying areas each day, initially focused on corn and HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains today

• CN, unch @ $3.1850; CU, dn $.0025 @ $3.2375.  The funds began the week selling 4 K           
• SN, up $.0225 @ $8.5725; SQ, up $.02 @ $8.5775.  Funds bot 3 K SB, 0 K SBM, 1 K SBO.  Board crush: $0.76 (N/N), -6; LY, $1.18
• WN, dn $.0375 @ $5.1350; WU, dn $.0350 @ $5.1725.  Fund sales on Monday totaled 4 K 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA Suppl/Demand report: Avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn production is 15.609 bbu (range 13.622-15.960)

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. 19/20 U.S. corn carryout, 2.225 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 3.403 bbu

·       Supply/Demand report: Avg. guess 19/20 Brazil corn crop is 99.2 MMT (range 97.0-101.0); Argentina, 49.5 (49.0-50.0)

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., widespread coverage of near & above-normal rain occurs over the next 2 weeks, with highest totals of 1.50” to 3.50” focused on the Corn Belt and central and southern Plains, including key corn areas

·       Consultant: Brazil corn production est. is lowered 1.0 MMT to 96.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. guess for 2020 U.S. soybean production is 4.120 bbu (range 3.558-4.292)

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.501 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 0.452 bbu

·       Supply/Demand: Avg. guess 19/20 Brazil soybean crop is 122.9 MMT (range 120.6-124.0); Argentina, 51.1 (50.0-52.0)

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., widespread coverage of near & above-normal rain occurs over the next 2 weeks, with highest totals of 1.50” to 3.50” focused on the Corn Belt and central and southern Plains, including key soybean areas

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. guess for 2020 U.S. winter wheat production is 1.255 bbu (range 1.200-1.318)

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. wheat carryout, 0.972 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 0.821 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: frequent rainfall is forecast across most U.S. HRW wheat over the next two weeks

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLM20, +$1.09 @ $25.23; EBN, +$0.50 @ $30.14; EBN-QCLN, -$0.62; RBM, +.0137; NGM, +.017; HOM, +.0192

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0070 higher at $1.11825/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, +$.0030 @ +$.09175; Gulf, -$.0170 @ $.07175; Dallas, +$.0130 @ +$.11675; Tampa, +$.0180 @ +$.23675; LA, -$.0070 @ +$.18675

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/weak: 2018’s, -0.25 @ 23 ¾-25 ¼; 2019’s, unch @ 33 ¼ -33 ¾; 2020’s: -.1250 @ 36 ¾ -37                                           &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                

​ ·       The June RBOB/June ethanol inverse popped back out $.0530 Monday to $.1908/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            ​              &​nbsp;            <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef increased $7.70 on Monday to $468.58, and is $58.53 higher compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $5.97 v. last week at $104.50/cwt, but is dn $15.84 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value soared $5.15 on Mon. to $120.950, & is $14.56 higher 28 vs. a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $33.10/cwt vs. last week’s $37.72, last month’s $30.71 & last year’s $62.68

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®