HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CK, +$.0450; SK, +$.0375; WK, +$.01; KWK, +$.0250.  Del’y: SBM, 922; SBO, 343; RR, 0; HRW, 9; SB, 1,000 

·       What caught my eye: Corn exports continue to struggle with 45/week now needed; USDA’s 1.725 bbu forecast may be on the high side in the absence of South American production issues

·       Hopes G7 members will adopt an expansionary policy boost markets.  Asia: Mostly lower: Nikkei, -1.22%; Shanghai, +0.74%; Hang Seng, -0.03%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +2.36%; FTSE, +2.06%; CAC, +2.06%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Higher--DOW, +176; S&P, +17.5; NAS, +74.25.  EXTERNALS: April crude, +$1.72 @ $48.47 Gold: +$8.70 @ $1,604; Mar $ Index, +.236 @ 97.555

• T-storm Weather®: little to no rain has fallen in Argentina over the last 10 days, and little to none falls until a minor system or two generate light totals in one to two weeks.  Temperatures remain much warmer as maximums mostly reach the upper-80s to mid-90s (averaging +4°F to +8°F from normal).  In Brazil, second-crop (safrinha) corn is at some risk of stress from little to no rain over the next two weeks in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, and only mixed rainfall to the north in Goiás and Mato Grosso
• CK, up $.0450 @ $3.80; CN, up $.0425 @ $3.8275.  The funds were buyers of 10 K   
• SK, up $0.0375 @ $9.0475; SN, up $.0450 @ $9.18.  Funds: Bot 7 SB;56 SBM; 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.88, +1; LY, $0.97 
• WK, up $.01 @ $5.2425; WN, dn $.0050 @ $5.2475.  The funds were even in yesterday’s trade   

    CORN/SORGHUM

·  ​     Consultant: Argentina corn crop est is unch at 49.0 MMT.  The current dry pattern will probably not have an impact on early planted corn as it’s close to maturing; but, that may not be true for late planted corn that is now pollinating

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, key second-crop (safrinha) corn areas of Goiás and Mato Grosso will be along the dividing area between no rain to the south and heavy rain in fringe areas of the north over the next two weeks

·       ATI Research: U.S. 19/20 corn ending stocks estimate is 1.976 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 1.892 bbu. 

·       U.S. 2019/20 corn exports through Feb. 27 are 0.556 bbu—down 45% compared to last year’s total of 1.016 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is unchanged at 125.0 MMT with a neutral bias.  Weather last week was wet across central Brazil, especially the states of Goias & Minas Gerias, & generally on the dry side in far southern areas

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, some rainfall is possible next week.  Most likely scenario is for light totals of 0.25”-0.75” to fall within March 9-11, potentially followed by another minor system or two later next week & weekend

·       ATI Research: U.S. 19/20 soybean ending stocks estimate is 0.495 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.425 bbu

·       USDA crop condition ratings for KS, OK and TX released on Monday showed modest improvement from last week 

·       T-storm Weather®: dry weather prevails in most of the central U.S. wheat region over the next week as areas of surface- and upper-level high pressure suppress rain and snow

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLJ20, +$1.72 @ $48.47; EBK, +$1.41 @ $53.32; EBK-QCLK, -.30; RBJ, +.0480; NGJ, +.051; HOJ, +.0373

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01475 firmer Monday at $1.2785; basis, firmer:  NYC, +$.01025 @ $.08900; Gulf, +$.01275 @ $.1140; Dallas, +$.00525 @ +$.09150; Tampa, +$.00525 @ +$.18150; LA, +$.00025 @ +$.19650

·       Ethanol RINs values, mixed: 2018’s, +1.25 @ 30 -31 ½; 2019’s, -2.00 @ 32 ½ -34; 2020’s, -2.25 @ 36 ½ -37 ½                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       

·       The April RBOB/March ethanol spread closed $.1451 wider on Monday at $.2856/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nb​sp;                   

• Choice boxed beef increased $1.23 on Monday to $206.53, but is still down 54-cents compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $4.86 v. last week to $114.85/cwt, and is down $13.37 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value jumped $2.55 on Mon. to $65.64 & is 74-cents higher versus last week

• Current nearby board hog crush value is $38.73/cwt vs. last week’s $43.50, last month’s $46.32 & last year’s $35.59

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®