HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CK, +$.0175; SK, +$.0425; WK, -$.0350; KWK, -$.0650

·       What caught my eye: Latest ATI 19-20 Stx/Use estimate of 20.4%/2.7 bbu c/o if realized, would be the largest carry-over cushion percentage-wise since the U.S. had a stx/use ratio of 24.9% at the conclusion of 92/93

·       Stocks are mixed; demand concerns related to COVID-19 mount. Asia: Mostly firm-- Nikkei, -0.74%; Shanghai, +0.60%; Hang Seng, +0.42%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.83%; FTSE, +1.53%; CAC, +0.50%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher?--DOW, +230; S&P, +29.75; NAS, +86.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, -$.05 @ $11.52; Gold: +$33.90 @ $1,722; Sep $ Index, -0.179 @ 100.175

·       T-storm Weather®: a swath of rain develops today across the southeast half of KS and much of OK, where soil moisture improves for HRW wheat.  A much drier and mild period generally follows as most systems bypass the region.  Elsewhere, widespread rain affects the Delta and southeast third of the Corn Belt today-Thu.  Thereafter, a separate system produces rain within the Dakotas, Corn Belt, and Delta over Thu.-Sat. 

• CK, up $.0175 @ $3.11; CN, up $.0150 @ $3.1875.  More fund selling, 7 K as demand ideas continue to erode
• SK, up $.0425 @ $8.35; SN, up $.0350 @ $8.4425.  Funds sold 3 K SB, 6 K SBO, bot 1 K SBM. Board crush: $0.84 (K/K), -4; LY, $1.04
• WK, dn $.0350 @ $5.4325; WN, dn $.0425 @ $5.42.  The funds were even in Tuesday’s trade   

CORN/SORGHUM

·       May 2020 corn futures on Tuesday traded to $3.01, the lowest price for nearby corn futures since Aug. 31, 2016

·       T-storm Weather®: a system flows from northwest to southeast through the Dakotas, Corn Belt, and Delta over Thu.-Sat., producing pockets of rain with 0.25”-0.50” in the northern Plains & 0.50”-1.00” in / near the Corn Belt & Delta

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting progress increases approximately 11% from April 19-26 to 20%

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       May 2020 soybean futures on Tuesday made a contract low of $8.08 ¼, but closed $0.04 ¼ higher at $8.30 ¾

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean planting progress increases approximately 3% from April 19-26 to 4%

·       T-storm Weather®: a system flows from northwest to southeast through the Dakotas, Corn Belt, and Delta over Thu.-Sat., producing pockets of rain with 0.25”-0.50” in the northern Plains & 0.50”-1.00” in / near the Corn Belt & Delta

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports remains at 15-20 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: rain & thunderstorms aid the southern third of HRW wheat today as a potent system passes, but likely miss northern KS where rain is also needed; a much drier & milder period follows for most HRW wheat into May

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLM20, -$0.05 @ $11.52; EBM, -$0.05 @ $19.30; EBM-QCLM, unch; RBM, +.0581; NGM, -.022; HOM, +.0258

·      &​nbsp;EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +15.2 (+13.2); Gasoline, +3.6 (+3.4); Distillates, +2.8 (+7.6).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.532 mbpd (range: 0.493-0.560).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 27.738 mb (range 26.939-28.293)

·       Chicago ethanol shed $.02625 to $.88625/gallon; basis, mostly firm:  NYC, +$.02125 @ $.03375; Gulf, unch @ $.0650; Dallas, +$.02625 @ +$.10875; Tampa, +$.01125 @ +$.20375; LA, -$.01375 @ +$.11375

·       Ethanol RINs values, weaker; 2018’s, -3.25 @ 17-21; 2019’s, -3.00 @ 21-25; 2020’s: -3.50 @ 31-3350                               ​;                        ​                         ​                                                 <​/wbr>

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened substantially, $.1210 to $.3827gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &​nbsp;                   <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef was $11.47 higher on Tuesday at $259.85, and is up $33.18 compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $2.72 v. last week to $102.28/cwt, and is dn $26.14 v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $3.48 on Tuesday to $69.00, & is $16.51 higher versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index was $0.22 higher on Tue. at $44.77.  May futures gained $3.675 but are $0.495 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®