Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CK, +$.0275; SK, unch; WK, -$.0575; KWK, -$.0725 

·       What caught my eye: Supportive February crush number, 2.6 million above the top end of the trade range.  Will be particularl interested to see where export soybean meal sales come in this morning:  100-350 expected versus just 123 K needed

·       Volatility continues, U.S. futures are higher despite economic toll.  Asia: Mostly firm-- Nikkei, -1.37%; Shanghai, +1.69%; Hang Seng, +0.84%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.39%; FTSE, +0.24%; CAC, +0.64%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher--DOW, +394; S&P, +45; NAS, +101.  EXTERNALS: May crude, +2.04 @ $22.35; Gold: +$11.00 @ $1,602; Sep $ Index, -0.073 @ 99.680

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, scattered thunderstorms affect driest southern corn areas April 6 when a cool front passes, followed by another extended period of drying as surface-level high pressure forms.  The same front drifts into northern corn areas, triggering scattered thunderstorms in one to two weeks.  Despite upcoming thunderstorms, below-normal rainfall is probable because rains are typically frequent in early April.  Check for updates each day as future rain is important for second-crop corn

• CK, up $.0275 @ $3.3750; CN, up $.0250 @ $3.4125.  Funds sell 15 K following a very negative weekly EIA ethanol report    
• SK, unch @ $8.6275; SN, unch @ $8.6725.  Funds: Sell 12 SB, 10 SBO, 8 SBM.  Board crush: $1.17 (K/K), 0; LY, $1.02 
• WK, dn $.0575 @ $5.4450; WN, dn $.0650 @ $5.4125.  Report day:  funds sell 12 K on row crop and macro weakness                            ​;   

   CORN/SORGHUM

· &n​bsp;     Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 26; trade expects 28-47 mbu for 2019/20 corn sales

·       Consultant: in Brazil, weather has generally been beneficial for the safrinha (double crop) corn in the state of Mato Grosso, and the crop is developing normally.  Mato Grosso produces the largest amount of safrinha corn in Brazil  

·       T-storm Weather®: for second-corn in Mato Grosso do Sul & Paraná, Brazil, mainly dry weather prevails into at least Mon., but heat ends over the next two days as a dry cool front passes

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 840,000 barrels/day for week ending March 27, dn 16.4% v. prior week & dn 15.9% v. 2019 

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 26; trade expects 14-33 mbu for 2019/20 soybean sales; 100-350 for 19/20 soymeal; and 8-40 for 19/20 soyoil

·       Consultant: hot and dry conditions continues to take a toll on soybean yields in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, an extended period of drying for 10 days allows soybean harvest to rapidly advance

·       Export Sales report for week end March 26; trade expects 7-18 mbu for 2019/20 wheat sales & 6-17 mbu for 2020/21

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., temps fluctuate within a wide range over the next week, most notably including a freeze on all of the HRW wheat belt on Sat. as mildness breaks; a very mild period then occurs several days next week

ENERGY

·       Up: CLK20, +$2.04 @ $22.35; EBM, +$2.56 @ $27.30; EBM-QCLM, +$.68; RBK, +.0751; NGK, +.012; HOK, <​/strong>+.0456

·       Chicago ethanol dropped $.0515 yesterday to $.8050/gallon; basis, weaker:  NYC, -$.00225 @ $.0875; Gulf, -$.0085 @ $.0950; Dallas, -$.0585 @ +$.1050; Tampa, -$.0635 @ +$.18; LA, -$.0235 @ +$.12

·       Ethanol RINs values, steady/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 15 ½ -17 ½; 2019’s, unch @ 19 ½-20; 2020’s: +1.00 @ 27 ½ -29                                    ​;                        ​                                                  ​               

​·       The April RBOB/April ethanol inverse narrowed again, snugging in $.0643 to $.2735, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &​nbsp;           ​;               

• Choice boxed beef fell another $7.98 on Wednesday to $235.17, and is down $20.13 versus a week ago
• Light cash cattle trade developed on Wed. at $112 in the South, which is ~$7.00 lower than last week's weighted avg.
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $3.14 lower on Wed. at $61.18, & is down $17.28 versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index was dn $0.69 on Wed. at $64.46.  April futures plummeted $3.000 & are $15.26 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®