HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CK, +$.0025; SK, +$.04; WK, -$.0350; KWK, -$.0350.  Del’y: SBM, 555; SBO, 108; RR, 7; HRW, 9; SB, 384 

·       What caught my eye: Contrary to some recent private (banks) estimates of a sharp down-turn in Chinese veg oil and SBM consumption, crush approaching the ½-way point of 19-20 is only down about 500 K MT (1.4%).  USDA sees 1 MMT increase

·       Markets rise on optimism Biden will win Dem nomination?  Asia: Mostly firm: Nikkei, +.08%; Shanghai, +0.63%; Hang Seng, -0.24%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.02%; FTSE, +1.29%; CAC, +1.07%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Much Higher--DOW, +539; S&P, +57.25; NAS, +175.50.  EXTERNALS: April crude, +$0.40 @ $47.58 Gold: -$2.70 @ $1,642; Mar $ Index, +.188 @ 97.310

• T-storm Weather®: little to no rain has fallen in Argentina since widespread totals February 17-18.  Drying continues for another week, but unlike last week when temps were ideally cool, heat dominates.  All of that said, a cooler and stormier period begins in one week to break ongoing drying.  Conversely, southern Brazil stays much drier than normal over the next two weeks as areas of high pressure dominate, making weather important in two to six weeks on second-crop (safrinha) corn
• CK, up $.0025 @ $3.8150 CN, dn $.0025 @ $3.8350.  The funds again bought an estimated 10 K   
• SK, up $0.04 @ $9.0750; SN, up $.0375 @ $9.1725.  Funds: Bot 4 SB; 3 SBM; 4 SBO.  Board crush: $0.99 (K/K), +2; LY, $0.98 
• WK, dn $.0350 @ $5.2375; WN, dn $.0350 @ $5.24.  The funds bought 4 K Tuesday                            

CORN/SORGHUM

· &nb​sp;     T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, mainly dry and hot weather dominate corn areas through at least Monday, though a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out in Buenos Aires and La Pampa later this week and weekend

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est is unch at 100.0 MMT, with a neutral bias.  There are now approx. two weeks left for farmers to plant safrinha (double crop) corn; given good corn prices in Brazil, farmers will plant as long as possible

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is increased to 35-40 mbu per week—up from 30-35 mbu

·       Ethanol margins: $0.09 per gallon—down vs. $0.14 last week and below $0.21 in 2019.  EIA report at 9>30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, mainly dry and hot weather dominate soybean areas through at least Monday, though a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out in Buenos Aires and La Pampa later this week and weekend

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 54.0 MMT with a neutral bias.  Following recent hot and dry weather, some moisture stress on soybeans is starting to appear and there will be more by the end of this week

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is 15-20 mbu per week; bias is toward the higher end of the range

·       T-storm Weather®: only 23% and 5% of U.S. HRW and SRW wheat were drier than normal over the last 30 days

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLJ20, +$0.40 @ $47.58; EBK, +$0.23 @ $52.09; EBK-QCLK, -.16; RBJ, +.0178; NGJ, -.01; HOJ, +.0130

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.6 (+1.7); Gasoline, -2.1 (-3.9); Distillates, -1.9 (-1.7).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.046 mbpd (range: 1.037-1.057).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.807 mb (range 24.650-25.093)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00150 firmer at $1.28; basis, mixed:  NYC, +$.0060 @ $.0950; Gulf, +$.0060 @ $.120; Dallas, -$.00150 @ +$.09; Tampa, -$.00150 @ +$.18; LA, +$.0085 @ +$.2050

·       Ethanol RINs values, weaker: 2018’s, -1.00 @ 29-30 ½; 2019’s, -1.00 @ 31 ½ -33; 2020’s, -1.00 @ 35 ½ -36 ½                           &​nbsp;                     ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                      

·       The April RBOB/March ethanol spread narrowed $.0153 yesterday at $.2703/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                         ​ 

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• Choice boxed beef firmed 9-cents on Tuesday to $206.62, but is still 85-cents lower versus last week 
• U.S. cattle slaughter for Tuesday was estimated at 124,000 head vs. 124,000 last week and 121,000 last year           

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 80-cents on Tue. to $64.84 & is 19-cents lower versus a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.03 on Tue. to $56.22.  April futures increased $0.750 & are $7.33 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®