IGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CK, -$.0075; SK, -$.03; WK, +$.13; KWK, +$.1225—French wheat yield potential worsens

·       What caught my eye: Bloomberg: “Beijing ‘may not meet’ promise on U.S. soybeans”.  We estimate to reach USDA’s 1.775 bbu forecast, China needs to lift 230 million from now to Sep 1.  Only 15 million in outstanding U.S. purchases are on the books

·       Crude is off sharply!  Asia: Mostly lower-- Nikkei, -1.15%; Shanghai, +0.50%; Hang Seng, -0.21%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.22%; FTSE, -0.44%; CAC, -0.39%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -351; S&P, -39.75; NAS, -74.5.   EXTERNALS: May crude, -$4.68 @ $13.59; Gold: -$5.70 @ $1,693; Sep $ Index, +0.210 @ 100.020

·       T-storm Weather®: U.S. HRW wheat would benefit from rain, and substantial rain remains likely Tue.-Wed. for much of the crop, but followed by a much drier and warmer period into May.  Elsewhere, the central U.S. turns milder with some rain in varying areas into early May, but breaks between events result in fairly typical springtime weather, such that neither ideal nor problematic conditions for corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting is expected

• CK, dn $.0075 @ $3.2150; CN, dn $.0075 @ $3.2850.  Funds sold 3 K Friday on hopes for a demand recovery
• SK, dn $.03 @ $8.2950; SN, dn $.0325 @ $8.39.  Funds sold 5 K SBM, bot 1 K SBO. SB, NA. Board crush: $0.91 (K/K), -4; LY, $1.03
• WK, up $.13 @ $5.4650; WN, up $.1250 @ $5.4625.  Bought 5 K on Friday—Russian export quota may be reached in a month 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: Second-corn in Brazil will be much drier than normal into May with no rain south until possibly April 29, and only some thunderstorms north over the next few days (and then the probable onset of the dry season)

·       ATI Research: USDA’s Crop Progress report today is projected to peg U.S. corn planting progress at 5-6% compared to 5% last year and the 5-year avg. of 9%

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 46.2 mbu needed; 40.5 last week.  Milo—2.8 needed; 7.7 last week

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week pegged Argentina corn harvest at 32.7%.  Yields for early-planted corn have been below expectations, although the final corn production estimate remains at 50.0 MMT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 31.8 mbu needed; 16.2 last week

·       ATI Research: USDA’s Crop Progress report today is projected to peg U.S. soybean planting progress at ~1% compared to 1% last year and the 5-year avg. of 1%

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week pegged Argentina soybean harvest at 37.8%; production est. is 49.5 MMT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 28.2 mbu needed; 22.4 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: a heavy thunderstorm cluster forms Tue.-Wed. with 0.50”-1.50” in southeast CO, central and southern KS, OK, & nearby areas of TX; soil moisture improves on much (but not all) HRW wheat

ENERGY

·       DOWN!: CLK20, -$4.68 @ $13.58; EBM, -$1.02 @ $27.05; EBM-QCLM, +1.10; RBK, -.0096; NGK, -.002; HOK, -.0229

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0150 higher on Friday at $.94/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.0250 @ $.02; Gulf, unch @ $.06; Dallas, unch @ +$.0750; Tampa, +$.0050 @ +$.18; LA, +$.0150 @ +$.1350

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm; 2018’s, unch @ 22 ¾-23 ¾; 2019’s, +0.375 @ 26 ½-28; 2020’s: +0.875 @ 36 ¼-37                                &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                     ​

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread inverted further, $.0144 to -$.2613/gallon Friday, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &n​bsp;                 

• Choice boxed beef was $3.12 higher on Friday at $238.99, and is up $15.06 compared to last week
• Cash cattle on Friday traded for $105 in the South, which was steady with the previous week
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $4.94 on Fri. to $59.15, & is $6.82 higher versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index was $0.77 lower on Fri. at $44.95.  May futures firmed $0.600 but are $7.025 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®