HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CH, +$.0050; SH, +$.0150; WH, -$.02; KWH, -$.01. 

·       What caught my eye: Outlook Forum’s forecast for an $8.80 average farm price looks on track with a 7.4% stx/use ratio.  Some analysts would take issue with both the USDA’s planted acreage assumption of 85.0 million and, 49.8 bpa yield.  Exports?

·       Europe is not quite sure coronavirus epidemic is contained.  Asia: Mostly lower: Nikkei, -3.34%; Shanghai, -0.60%; Hang Seng +0.27%; EUROPE: Down —DAX, -0.80%; FTSE, -0.78%; CAC, -0.90%.  WALL STREET: Futures, firm--DOW, +21; S&P, +1.715; NAS, +9.  EXTERNALS: April crude, -$0.15 @ $51.28; Gold: -$23.60 @ $1,653; Mar $ Index, -.014 @ 99.270

• Weather: episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms impact Brazilian crops today-Wednesday.  Moderate to heavy totals are expected.  Dry weather is forecast for Thursday.  Temps average near to above normal today, variable Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.  Dry conditions or just a few light showers are forecast for Argentina today.   Dry weather follows on Wednesday. Temp are variable today, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday
• CH, up $.0050 @ $3.7275; CK, up $.0025 @ $3.7650.  Heavy fund selling to begin the week, 15 K       
• SH, up $.0150 @ $8.7575; SK, up $.0175 @ $8.8425.  Funds: Sold 10 SB, 5 SBM, & 15 SBO.  Board crush: $0.80, -3; LY, $0.98,-; 
• WH, dn $.02 @ $5.3425; WK, dn $.0275 @ $5.32.  Fund selling on Monday was 15 K                             

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Contract lows were established on Monday for May, July, September and December 2020 corn futures

·       U.S. corn exports for the 19/20 marketing year through Feb. 20 totaled 521 mbu, which is 47% below last year’s total of 982 mbu

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks are forecast at 1.976 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 1.892 bbu

• Consultant: Brazil corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 100.0 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward

·       Through Feb. 24, the average projected crop insurance price for December 2020 corn futures is $3.9057

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       November 2020 soybean futures on Mon. closed at $9.05—lowest settlement price since May 23, 2019

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks forecast at 0.495 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 0.425 bbu

·       U.S. soybean exports for 19/20 crop year through Feb. 20 were 1061 mbu, which is 15% above last year’s 923 mbu

·       Through Feb. 24, the average projected crop insurance price for November 2020 soybean futures is $9.1892

·       Chicago SRW March futures on Mon. closed at $5.36 ¼—the lowest settlement price for the contract since Dec. 13

·       U.S. wheat exports for the 19/20 crop year through Feb. 20 were 667 mbu, which is 10% above last year’s 607 mbu

·       Weather: rain and snow affect a majority of U.S. SRW wheat in the Midwest, Delta & Southeast through Wednesday

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLJ20, -$0.15 @ $51.28; EBJ, -$0.13 @ $57.17; EBJ-QCLJ, +.03; RBJ, -.0004; NGJ, -.004; HOJ, +.0027

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.00625 Monday to $1.3225; basis, weaker:  NYC, -$.07075 @ $.0055; Gulf, -$.08075 @ $.0255; Dallas, -$.08575 @ +$.055; Tampa, -$.10575 @ +$.0905; LA, -$.08075 @ +$.1005

·       Ethanol RINs values, higher: 2018’s, +1.5 @ 24 -28; 2019’s, +2.00 @ 28 -29; 2020’s, +1.625 @ 33 ½- 35                                                ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                          

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread tightend up $.0365 at $.3021/gallon        

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &n​bsp;                

• Choice boxed beef was $1.98 higher on Monday at $207.07 but is still down 19-cents versus last week  
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $0.81 v. last week to $119.71/cwt, but is down $6.65 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.20 on Mon. to $64.90 and is $3.49 higher versus a week ago

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.50/cwt vs. last week’s $42.37, last month’s $48.91 & last year’s $34.46   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN