HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CH, +0.0125; SF, +$.0650; WH, -$.0175; KWH, -$.0150.  Dalian Jan futures: C, -3/4 ; SB, +23.  Dely: SRW, 15        

·       What caught my eye:  Preliminary soybean export data from Argentina, Brazil and the U.S for Sep-Nov indicated an 18% reduction from the 2019 level or about 2.1 MMT.  China aside, could demand rationing be underway? 

·       Well, today the pundits suggest with an economic boost increasingly needed for Main Street, a Covid-19 package by month-end?

• Asia: Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +1.33%; Shanghai, -1.12%; Hang Seng, +0.75%
• EUROPE:  Firmer:  DAX, +0.96%; FTSE, +0.45%; CAC, +0.19% 
• WALL STREET: Mostly higher–DOW futures, +84; S&P, +7; NAS, -5.25
• EXTERNALS: Jan crude, +$0.13 @ $45.73; Gold: -$10.90 @ $1,864; Mar $ Index, -.180 @ 90.700
• T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, thunderstorms form in the central and north within today-Fri., which are likely important because rains over the first few days of this week were less than initially anticipated, and this period has the best chance over the next 7 to 10 days; 1.00" to 3.00" is most likely.  Southern Brazil will be dry until one or two rounds of thunderstorms form within Sun.-Thu. (Dec. 13-17).  A few thunderstorms dot southern Argentina on Fri., then central and north around Sun. and again a few days later
• CH, up $.0075 @ $4.2050; CK, dn $.0050 @ $4.2350.  South American precipitation encouraged 12 K in fund sales
• SF, up $.0650 @ $11.52; SH, up $.0550 @ $11.57.  Funds: sold 8 SB, 6 SBM, 6 SBO. Board crush: $1.15 (Z/F), -4; LY, $1.04
• WH, dn $.0175 @ $5.6825; WK, dn $.0175 @ $5.7150.  The funds sold 6 K as export demand remains subdued                                            

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consulta​nt: Argentina 20/21 corn crop est. is unch at 48.0 MMT; neutral to lower bias going forward.  Rain over the last several weeks has improved, which is important for the earlier planted corn that is now approaching pollination

·       T-storm Weather®: In southern Brazil, most full-season corn stays dry through Sat.; thunderstorms follow Sun.-Mon., followed by scattered rain over the week that follows.  Likely result is 1.50”-3.00” next 2 weeks, v. normal 2.50”-3.50”

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·     &​nbsp; Consultant: Argentina 2020/21 soybean crop est. is unch at 49.0 MMT; topsoil moisture is adequate for germination

·       T-storm Weather®: In central & northern Brazil, scattered rain occurs Wed.-Thu.; a drier period follows for 5-7 days.  An uptick in rain is then probable in 10-14 days; likely result is 3.00”-5.00” next 2 weeks, v. normal of ~3.50”-~5.50”

·       ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat exports are pegged at 13-17 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: In the U.S., only minor showers are expected on Thursday night and Friday for HRW wheat

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLF21, +$0.13 @ $45.73; EBG, +$0.07 @ $48.91; EBG-CLG, -0.06; RBF, +.0052; NGF, +.083; HOF, -.0001

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -1.4 (+1.1); Gasoline +2.3 (+6.4); Distillates +1.4 (+2.3).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.971 mbpd (range: 0.960-0.994).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.637 mb (range: 20.950 - 22.140)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0035 lower at $1.2985/gallon. Basis, mixed:  NYC, +$0.0035 @ $.10150; Gulf, -$.0015 @ +$.0815; Dallas, +$.0041 @ +$.0571; Tampa, -$.0065 @ +$.1615; LA, +$.1008 @ +$.2415

·       Ethanol RINs, weaker: 2019’s, dn 1.50 @ 66-68; 2020’s, dn 1.50 @ 67 ½-69; 2021, dn 1.75 @ 68 ½  –70                              &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                       

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread is $.0143 higher at  -$.0548 per gallon this morning  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;

• Choice boxed beef plummeted $5.78 on Tuesday to $225.02, and is $18.38 lower versus last week
• Light cash cattle trade occurred on Tue. at $108 in Texas and Kansas, which is $2.00-$2.50 lower from a week ago
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $0.69 on Tue. to $77.45, and is $1.40 higher compared to a week ago 
• Lean Hog Index fell $0.18 on Tue. to $65.62.  December futures gained $0.05 but remain $1.07 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather