HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CH, -$.0075; SF, -$.02; WH, +$.0125; KWK, +$.0150. Del’y: SBM, 1355; SBO, 1003; RR, 409; SB, 795 

·       What caught my eye: China protein demand stabilizing?  November crush was reported at 7.2 MMT, up 1% from November 2018 and 4.3% greater than last month’s total

·       All in all, a good year for the markets, though some see a slight decline today. Asia: Mixed: Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, +0.33%; Hang Seng, -0.46%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -0.66%; FTSE, -0.41%; CAC, -0.04%.  WALL STREET Futures—A positive start?—DOW, +22 S&P, +2.50; NAS, +3.75.  EXTERNALS: Mar crude: +$.10 @ $61.54; Gold: +$6.80 @ $1,525; $ Index, -.228 @ 96.512

·       T-storm Weather®: recent rain improved topsoil moisture in Argentina, & although another dry period starts today, a cool front is probable to trigger thunderstorms in 10-14 days.  Meanwhile, coverage & intensity of dryness has increased in Brazil, leaving first-crop corn & soybeans in need of rain.  Near-& above-normal rain likely ease dryness in Mato Grosso & the four-state region of MATOPIBA into next week, while southern Brazil turns much drier despite some rain, continuing stress in Rio Grande do Sul

• CH, dn $.0075 @ $3.8750; CK, dn $.01 @ $3.9425.  The funds began the week by selling 2 K      
• SF, dn $.02 @ $9.3750; SH, dn $.0075 @ $9.5175.  Funds: Bot 6 SB, 2 SBM & 5 SBO.  Board crush: $1.02, +4; LY, $1.00,-3; 
• WH, up $.0125 @ $5.5725, WK, up $.01 @ $5.60.  The funds were even in Monday’s trade         

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn exports for the 19/20 crop year through Dec. 26 were 317 mbu, which is 55% below last year’s 708 mbu

·       ATI Research: pace of U.S. corn exports may improve; the South American vessel line-up fell 35% the past 10 days & is barely 50% of 2018’s same day total of 77 mbu, and U.S. FOB Gulf values are now at a $.75/MT discount to Ukraine

·       T-storm Weather®: coverage and intensity of dryness in Brazil continues to increase, leaving 76% of first-crop corn drier than normal over the last 14 days, and 67% over the last 30 days (including 44% with less than half of normal)

·       Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 corn production est. is steady this week at 102.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·     ​  U.S. soybean exports for the 19/20 crop year through Dec. 26 were 761 mbu, which is 25% above last year’s 611 mbu

·       T-storm Weather®: coverage and intensity of dryness in Brazil continues to increase, leaving 69% of soybeans drier than normal over the last 14 days, and 60% over the last 30 days (including 41% with less than half of normal)

·       U.S. all wheat exports for the 19/20 crop year through Dec. 26 were 533 mbu, which is 14% above last year’s 466 mbu

·       ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports continue to face strong competition.  For example, Black Sea wheat exports the past month have running about 6 mbu per week higher than a year ago

·       T-storm Weather®: high pressure suppresses precip in the U.S. Plains the next 2 weeks, leaving most HRW wheat dry 

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLH20, +$0.10 @ $61.54; EBH, +$0.23 @ $66.92; EBH-QCLH, +.13; RBH, +.0052; NGH, -.001; HOH, +.0028

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.01025 at $1.3760; basis values versus Chicago were mostly weaker:  NYC, -.0275 @ $.13150; Gulf, -.015 @ $.1090; Dallas, -.01 @ +$.0590; Tampa, -.0150 @ -$.15400; LA, unch @ +$.2240

·       Ethanol RINs values were lower: 2018’s, -1.00 @ 4-5; 2019’s, -1.75 @ 8 ½ -10; 2020’s, -1.75 @ 15 -17                                      &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                              

·       The January RBOB/January ethanol spread narrowed on Monday, in $.0150 to $.3463/gallon        

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY       ​;                &nb​sp;               

• Choice boxed beef increased 70-cents on Monday to $209.66 but is still $1.91 lower compared to last week 
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.92 v. last week at $122.28/cwt, but is $0.24 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 33-cents on Monday to $74.15 and is down $1.81 versus last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.86 on Mon. to $58.17.  February futures firmed $1.225 & are $13.630 above the index    

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®