Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CH, -$.0025; SF, -$.05; WH, +$0.01; KWH, +$.0075 

·       What caught my eye: Black Sea corn exports continue to amaze with an estimated 51 million shipped last week.  The 4-week average is approaching 45/week which is in rather sharp contrast to U.S. SON shipments of 21-22 million each week
Wall Street makes new highs, again.  Markets leaning a little higher this morning.  Asia, Mostly firm: Nikkei, +0.04%; Shanghai, +0.67%; Hang Seng, -0.15%; EUROPE: Slightly firm—DAX, -0.13%; FTSE, +0.04%; CAC, +0.04%.  WALL STREET Futures—Firm—DOW, +18; S&P, +2.25; NAS, +4.50.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$.14 @ $60.66; Gold: +$5.50 @ $1,494; $ Index, +.124 @ 97.782

·       T-storm Weather®: outlook continues to improve in Argentina as pockets of rain last week combine with multiple opportunities for thunderstorms the next 10 days to improve soil moisture.  Conversely, no rain this week & only some rain next week may leave southern Brazil & Paraguay in need of thunderstorms by the second week of January.  Although dryness concern will persist for soybeans in Mato Grosso & northern Brazil the next 7 to 10 days, it is lessened by expectations of a wet period in early January

• CH, dn $.0025 @ $3.8850; CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.95.  The funds bought 1 K on Monday      
• SF, dn $.05 @ $9.29; SH, dn $.05 @ $9.3725.  Funds: Bought 5 SB,  5 SBM & sold 1 SBO.  Board crush: $1.01, +2; LY, $.94,-3; 
• WH, up $.01 @ $5.4050, WK, up $.0050 @ $5.4425.  The funds again sold 2 K       

CORN/SORGHUM

·  &nb​sp;    U.S. corn exports for the 19/20 crop year through Dec. 19 were 300 mbu, which is 55% below last year’s 670 mbu

·       Competition in the world corn export market remains especially keen.  For example, Black Sea corn exports the past month have been huge, averaging 45 per week, double the pace from a year ago

·       T-storm Weather®: very mild weather prevails across central U.S. through at least Wed. as highs continue to reach the 40s, 50s, & 60s, further diminishing snow depths in north.  Dry weather prevails in most areas through at least Wed.

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. corn is 1.919 bbu vs. December USDA est. of 1.910 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean exports for the 19/20 crop year through Dec. 19 were 727 mbu, which is 25% above last year’s 583 mbu

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, hot upper-level high pressure in the north and seasonable surface-level high pressure in the south (and Paraguay) leave soybeans in these areas much drier than normal for 7 to 10 days

·       U.S. all wheat exports for the 19/20 crop year through Dec. 19 were 520 mbu, which is 15% above last year’s 452 mbu

·       ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports continue to face strong competition.  For example, Black Sea wheat exports the past month have running about 20%/5 mbu per week higher than a year ago, at 31.4 million

·       T-storm Weather®: widespread rain affects most U.S. HRW & SRW wheat Fri.-Sun., followed by dry & mild weather

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLG20, +$0.14 @ $60.66; EBG, +$0.26 @ $66.66; EBG-QCLG, +.15; RBG, +.0111; NGG, -.018; HOG, +.0072

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00875 higher at $1.39; basis values versus Chicago were weaker:  NYC, -$.01625 @ $.1225; Gulf, -$.00125 @ $.13250; Dallas, -$.00375 @ +$.0550; Tampa, -$.00875 @ -$.1350; LA, -$.00875 @ +$.19

·       Ethanol RINs values mostly weaker: 2018’s, -.50 @ 5-6; 2019’s, -.25 @ 11 ½ -12 ½; 2020’s, +.125 @ 18 -19                              &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;    

·       The January RBOB/January ethanol spread eased $.0013 to $.3171/gallon Monday; trading $.3250 this morning       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &n​bsp;                        

• Choice boxed beef was $1.87 higher on Monday at $211.57 but is still down $5.51 versus the previous week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.19 v. last week at $120.36/cwt, and is $1.55 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 2-cents on Mon. to $75.96 but is $2.98 lower versus a week ago

·         Hogs and Pigs report: All hogs & pigs, 103.0% (102.9% avg. est.); breeding, 102.1% (101.6%); market, 103.1% (103.0%)   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®