HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CH, +$.0025; SF, +$.0025;WH, -$0.0150; KWH, -$.0175.  Del’y: SBM, 100; SBO, 622; C, 62; ETOH, 0; HRW, 3

·       USDA Supply/Demand (WASDE) report at 11:00 am CST

·       What caught my eye:  Although U.S. corn exports may be getting some relief from Brazil as shipments from that country ease, not so with respect to the Black Sea where combined Russia/Ukraine exports are currently double the year ago pace; i.e., 40/week 

·       December 15^th trade “deadline” approaching, stock futures slump. ASIA: Mostly weaker—Nikkei, -0.09%; Shanghai, +0.10%; Hang Seng, -0.22%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -1.51%; FTSE, -1.17%; CAC, -0.87%.  WALL STREET—Futures, sharply lower—DOW, -134; S&P, -13.50; NAS, -44.00.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.32 @ $58.62; Gold: +$6.60 @ $1,472; $ Index, -.142 @ 97.502

·       T-storm Weather®: dryness intensifies on key areas of Argentina over next 10-14 days as a lack of humidity keeps heavy rains to the immediate north, but including rains for first-corn and soybeans in southern Brazil and Paraguay this weekend and next week.  Dry and hot weather unfold in northeast areas of Brazil over the next 10 days, including ~33% of first-corn & soybean production

• CH, up $.0025 @ $3.76; CK, up $.00725@ $3.8150.  The funds sold 2 K ahead of Tuesday’s December WASDE
• SF, up $.0025 @ $8.9750; SH, up $.0050 @ $9.1225.  Funds, bot 8 K SB; SBM & SBO, NA.  Board crush: $1.07, -5; LY, $.84,-3; 
• WH, dn $.0150 @ $5.2125; WK, dn $.02 @ $5.24.  Fund selling on wheat was also estimated at 2 K on Monday 

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn carryout--19/20, 1.861 bbu (range 1.190-1.960) & 1.910 in Nov.
• USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. Brazil corn crop--19/20, 100.8 MMT; Argentina corn crop—19/20, 49.7 MMT

·       U.S. corn harvest is 92%, up 3 points from last week but below 100% for both last year & the 5-year avg.  North Dakota at 43%; South Dakota, 83%; Wisconsin 74%; & Michigan 74%

·       T-storm Weather®: light rain and snow occasionally affect northern and eastern areas of the central U.S. over the next 10 days, likely being a nuisance for remaining harvesting in MI and WI, while snowpack lingers in ND

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. corn is 1.919 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 1.910

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USD​A WASDE Dec. 10: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean carryout--19/20, 0.474 bbu (range 0.392-0.522) & 0.475 in Nov.

• USDA WASDE report: Avg. est. Brazil soybean crop--19/20, 123.1 MMT; Argentina soybean crop—19/20, 53.1 MMT

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, rainfall diminishes for a 7- to 10-day period as hot upper-level high pressure forms, suppressing rain across Bahia, Goias, Minas Gerais, Tocantins, and eastern Mato Grosso (including ~33% of soybeans)

·       USDA WASDE Dec. 10: Avg. trade est. U.S. wheat carryout--19/20, 1.009 bbu (range 0.964-1.050) & 1.014 in Nov.

• T-storm Weather®: most U.S. HRW wheat areas are forecast to be dry this week, while SRW wheat remains moist

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLG20, -$0.32 @ $58.62; EBG, -$0.35 @ $63.90; EBG-QCLG, -.02; RBG, -.0098; NGG, -.004; HOG, -.0104

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.0325 on Monday; basis values versus Chicago were mixed:  NYC, +$.0075 @ $.0950; Gulf, +$.0125 @ $.1250; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.055; Tampa, unch@ +$.1625; LA, +$.0125 @ +$.2250

·       Ethanol RINs values were mixed: 2018’s, +.1250 @ 6 ¾-7; 2019’s, +.1250 @ 12 ¾-13; 2020’s, -.50 @ 19 -19 ½                                       &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                           

·​;       The January RBOB/January ethanol spread widened $.0194 yesterday to $.2918/gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &n​bsp;    

• Choice boxed beef declined 92-cents on Monday to $223.64 and is $8.97 lower compared to last week 
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.71 v. last week at $118.92/cwt, and is $0.81 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 48-cents on Mon. to $80.95 and is down $1.51 versus a week ago

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.44/cwt vs. last week’s $43.65, last month’s $48.41 & last year’s $41.25   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®