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TRENDS Mixed CH, Down 1, SH, Up 1, WH, Unchanged

January 8, 2020 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CH, -$.0125; SH, -$.0050; WH, +$.0150; KWH, +$.0075. Del’y: SBM, 574; SBO, 298; SB, 258 

·       What caught my eye: Stocks accumulation?  Trade data indicates China’s SON SB imports from the Big 3 suppliers are up 8.7 MMT yr to yr at 24.7 million.  Yet, crush is off 2.1 MMT/8.3% to 23.4 million but this is a lot less than estimates for the drop in hog #’s  

·       Iran strikes back. Asia: Down: Nikkei, -1.57%; Shanghai, -1.22%; Hang Seng, -0.83%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.18%; FTSE, -0.06%; CAC, -0.12%.  WALL STREET: Futures, mixed?—DOW, -4; S&P, +6.50; NAS, +12.75.  EXTERNALS: Mar crude: +$0.13 $62.64; Gold: +7.40 $1,582; $ Index, +.094 @ 97.099

·       T-storm Weather®: below-normal rain likely continues in central & northern Brazil amid low thunderstorm coverage for 7-10 days, but then an uptick in rain occurs as high pressure weakens.  More than one round of thunderstorms will ease dryness in southern Brazil through mid-month, including Rio Grande do Sul starting Fri.-Sun.  Central & northern Argentina benefit from a wet pattern from Wed.-Thu. forward, easing dryness & / or maintaining soil moisture, while fairly dry (but cool) weather dominate south

  • CH, dn $.0125 @ $3.8325; CK, dn $.0125 @ $3.9025.  Funds sell 1 K; China not changing its corn import quota       
  • SH, dn $.0050 @ $9.4350; SK, dn $.0125 @ $9.56.  Funds: sold 2 K SB, 2 SBM, bot 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.96, -3; LY, $0.98,-3; 
  • WH, up $.0150 @ $5.5175; WK, up $.0150 @ $5.5475.  The funds were also sellers of 1 K wheat            

CORN/SORGHUM

· &nbs​p;     Jan. 10 USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade est. for 2019 U.S. corn crop is 13.502 bbu (range of 13.030-13.701)

·       Jan. 10 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. for 2019/20 U.S. corn carryout is 1.776 bbu (range of 1.479-2.124)

·       Jan. 10 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. for 2019/20 Brazil corn crop is 100.8 MMT; Argentina, 49.7 MMT

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, above-normal rainfall of 1.50” to 3.50” falls over the next two weeks in central and northern corn areas, easing dryness in the north and maintaining improved soil moisture in central areas

·       Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 corn production estimate is unchanged at 47.5 MMT with a neutral bias going forward

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Jan. 10 USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade est. for 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 3.513 bbu (range: 3.457-3.591)

·       Jan. 10 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. for 2019/20 U.S. soybean carryout is 0.431 bbu (range of 0.310-0.520)

·       T-storm Weather®: while heavy rain impacts soybeans over the next two weeks in central and northern Argentina, areas of cool high pressure leave crops in Buenos Aires and La Pampa drier than normal

·       Jan. 10 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. for 2019/20 U.S. wheat carryout is 0.971 bbu (range of 0.930-1.000)

·       T-storm Weather®: field &/or river flooding is likely over next 2 weeks for SRW wheat in Delta & SE third of Corn Belt

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLH20, +$0.13 $62.64; EBH, +$0.51 @ $68.78; EBH-QCLH+.39; RBH, +.0055; NGH, -.002; HOH, +.0136

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -3.6 (-5.9); Gasoline, +2.7 (+6.7); Distillates, +3.9 (+6.4).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.073 mbpd (range: 1.060-1.085).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.752 mb (range 21.511-22.000)

·       Chicago ethanol was unchanged at $1.2905; basis values versus Chicago weakened:  NYC, -.0050 @ $.1245; Gulf, -.0025 @ $.1270; Dallas, -.01 @ +$.0945; Tampa, -.01 @ +$.1995; LA, -$.01 @ +$.2695

·       Ethanol RINs values were unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 4-5; 2019’s, +0.3750 @ 7 ½ -8; 2020’s, +0.6250 @ 14-14 ½                                              ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                  

·       The February RBOB/February ethanol spread was off $.0402 yesterday to $.3692; trading $.3744 this morning       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY         &​nbsp;                ​;             

  • Choice boxed beef eased 9-cents on Tuesday to $209.56 but is still 14-cents higher versus a week ago
  • Cash cattle trading has been slow to develop this week, with asking prices near $127 in the South & $203 in the North

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.83 on Tue. to $72.83 but is still up 66-cents versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.03 on Tue. to $59.16.  February futures firmed $0.600 and are $10.065 above the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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