HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower! CZ, -$.05; SF, -$.0925; WZ, -$.0175; KWZ, -$.0225.  Dalian Jan futures: C, +6; SB, -16 ¾    

·       What caught my eye: SBO has gained about 5 cents a pound since the 1^st of November.  Notice that Covid restrictions cut Apr-June livestock fats/oil use in biodiesel production 40%/280 lbs with SBO 8%/339 mil lbs higher.  A repeat coming?

·       Pfizer raises vaccine efficiency to 95%; NYC schools close due to rising positivity rate; markets slip

• Asia:  Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -0.36%; Shanghai, +0.47%; Hang Seng, -0.71%
• EUROPE:  Weaker:  DAX, -1.01%; FTSE, -1.01%; CAC, -0.81%
• WALL STREET: Lower–DOW futures, -147; S&P, -16.25; NAS, -60.75
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, -$0.52 @ $41.30; Gold: -$18.20 @ $1,856; Mar $ Index, +0.289 @ 92.550
• T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, rain continues across the northeast ~25% of soybeans the few days.  Dry weather to the south ends in some fashion Nov. 26-28; best overall chance is in Rio Grande do Sul.  Drying does not end in this period central and north, most notably leaving a swath from the southern half of Mato Grosso through key areas of Goias fairly dry.  In Argentina, rain occurs Nov. 24-26, but heavy totals are not expected in key central and southern areas.  A fairly dry period likely follows into December
• CZ, dn $.05 @ $4.2075; CH, dn $.0425 @ $4.2625. The funds were again buyers, 5 K as the USDA announced a 140 K sale
• SF, dn $.0925 @ $11.6650; SH, dn $.0950 @ $11.6525.  Funds bot 5 SB, 0 SM, 8 BO. Board crush: $1.16 (Z/F), +$.02; LY, $0.93
• WZ, dn $.0175 @ $5.96; WH, dn $.0225 @ $6.0425.  Funds bought 4 K yesterday as wheat rode the coattails of corn & beans                                

CORN/SORGHUM

·       E​xport Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 24 – 39 mbu for 20/21 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: Thunderstorms return to full-season corn Nov. 26-29 in southern Brazil, including Rio Grande do Sul where there was little rain in recent weeks; 1.00”-2.00” is forecast the next two weeks v. normal rainfall of ~3.00”

·       Ethanol grind: 962,000 barrels/day for week ending Nov. 13—dn 15 thou (1.5%) v. last week and 6.9% lower v. 2019

·       Consultant: Ideal safrinha (double crop) corn planting window in Mato Grosso, Brazil closes about the third week of February.  There are estimates that in some municipalities as much as 20% of safrinha corn will be planted in March

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 22- 44 mbu for 20/21 soybeans; soymeal, 100 – 300 for 20/21; and soyoil, 8 - 40 for 20/21  

·       T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, the likely forecast over the next two weeks is for ~1.50” of rainfall across soybeans in the south to contrast with ~4.00” north; ~3.00” to ~5.00” is normal.

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 9 - 18 mbu for 20/21 wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: Rain occurs on Sat. for HRW wheat in KS, NE, & OK, producing 0.25”-0.75” west & 0.50”-1.50” east

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ20, -$0.52 @ $41.30; EBF, -$0.24 @ $44.10; EBF-CLF, -0.24; RBZ, -.0138; NGZ, -.065; HOZ, -.0014

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0095 higher Wednesday at $1.3895/gallon. Basis, mixed:  NYC, +$.0030 @ +$.0830; Gulf, +$.0105 @ +$.06550; Dallas, -$.0095 @ +$.0355; Tampa, -$.0195 @ +$.14050; LA, -$.0195 @ +$.1205

·       Ethanol RIN values, steady: 2019’s, @ 60-61; 2020’s, @ 61 -62; 2021, @ 61 – 64                                      &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                                 &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;         

· &nb​sp;     The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.0497 lower at -$.2064 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                 &nb​sp;        

• Choice boxed beef was $2.12 higher on Wednesday at $235.84, and is up $13.00 compared to the previous week
• Light cash cattle trade occurred on Wed. at $110 in Texas, Kansas and Nebraska—fully steady with last week’s prices
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.10 on Wed. to $76.22, & is $6.01 lower versus a week ago
• Lean Hog Index fell $0.41 on Wed. to $69.32.  December futures gained $0.275 but remain $3.520 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather